Quick takes // By Ben FrankelEarly Egyptian election returns confirm Islamist trend

Published 1 December 2011

The immediate results of the Arab Spring so far have complicated the manner in which the United States protect its interests and negotiate regional issues, but these results also offer new opportunities; the news is not all bad for the United States: the Islamist parties which won in Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt may use anti-American rhetoric, but their rise to power also means an increase in the influence of Saudi Arabia in the region; this will likely mean a more robust Sunni Arab containment posture vis-à-vis Iran and its Shi’a and non-Sunni allies (Hezbollah, Syria)

The Arab Spring raised hopes that the Arab world was on the verge of a true transformation, but the message sent by the election results in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt is more complicated.

Morocco
In Morocco, thirty parties competed in the 25 November 2011 elections. The main competition was among three groupings:

  • The moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD)
  • The Coalition for Democracy (an 8-party coalition formed on 10 October 2011 and including: the National Rally of Independents, the Popular Movement, the Constitutional Union, the Authenticity and Modernity Party [PAM], the Labour Party, the Green Left Party, the Party of Renaissance and Virtue, and the Socialist Partyl], headed by Morocco’s incumbent minister of finance Salaheddine Mezouar
  • The Koutla (Coalition), an alliance of three parties (the Istiqlal Party, the Socialist Union of Popular Forces, and the Party of Progress and Socialism), led by the incumbent prime minister Abbas El Fassi.  

The Coalition for Democracy won 159 seats in the 395-seat Assembly; the Koutla won 117 seats; and the PJD won 107. The PJD thus emerged as the largest single party and its leader, Abdelillah Benkirane, will become the new prime minister, in all likelihood in a coalition government with the Koutla.

Tunisia
The elections in Tunisia were held on 23 October 2011. Twenty parties competed for seats in the 217-seat Constituent Assembly. The four major parties were:

  • The moderate Islamist party Ennahda
  • The Progressive Democratic Party, a secular, socially liberal, and economically centrist party enjoying the support of the business community
  • The Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties, a left-leaning, anti-Islamist party
  • The Congress for the Republic, a party centered around secularism and intellectual freedom

The Ennhahda won 89 seats, and said it would propose Hamadi Jebali, the party’s secretary-general, as the new prime minister.