Infrastructure protectionGreater L.A. to heat up an average 4 to 5 degrees by mid-century

A groundbreaking new study led by UCLA climate expert Alex Hall shows that climate change will cause temperatures in the Los Angeles region to rise by an average of 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of this century, tripling the number of extremely hot days in the downtown area and quadrupling the number in the valleys and at high elevations.

Released last week, Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region, is the first study to provide specific climate-change predictions for the greater Los Angeles area, with unique predictions down to the neighborhood level. The report, the most sophisticated regional climate study ever developed, was produced by UCLA with funding and support from the city of Los Angeles (see city’s news release), in partnership with the Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability (LARC). It is available online at c-change.la.

 “The changes our region will face are significant, and we will have to adapt,” said Hall, an associate professor in UCLA’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences who is also a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, which, among other things, assess global climate-change simulations for the United Nations.

“Every season of the year in every part of the county will be warmer,” Hall said. “This study lays a foundation for the region to confront climate change. Now that we have real numbers, we can talk about adaptation.”

A UCLA release reports that the LARC’s unprecedented coalition of cities, universities, businesses, non-profits, and other agencies made the study possible. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and the city of Los Angeles led the way, obtaining a $613,774 grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to study and share climate research and committing $484,166 to commission UCLA’s climate-change study. Though scientists knew to expect warming, this is the first time policymakers in the Los Angeles area have precise information on which to base their plans.

“UCLA’s model shows projected climate changes down to the neighborhood level, allowing us to apply the rigor of science to long-term planning for our city and our entire region,” Villaraigosa said.

“With good data driving good policies, we can craft innovative solutions that will preserve our environment and enhance the quality of life for the next generation of Angelenos.” 

Facts and figures from the study
The study looked at the years 2041–60 to predict the average temperature change by mid-century. The data covers all of