Gaza warIsrael, Hamas on verge of cease-fire deal – or ground war

Smoke rises following an Israeli air strike in Gaza // Source: yaarab.net

The Israeli government yesterday (Monday) postponed a decision on a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip — inside sources said the decision was to postpone the green light for an invasion for twenty-four hours — as intense negotiations in Egypt continue in an effort to reach a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Israel hopes to avoid a ground invasion, and President Obama, while expressing his support for Israel’s right to defend itself, also said that he hoped a resolution would be found without the need to “tamp up” the violence.

A similar line was taken by the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.

Haaretz reports that the talks Monday and Tuesday in Cairo would be decisive.

The talks are handled in three parallel circles. The Israeli delegates to the talks meet and discuss things with the Egyptian delegation, which is led by Egyptian intelligence chief General Raafat Shehata.

The Egyptians then report that Israeli positions to delegates from Turkey and Qatar – and then delegates from these three countries discuss the Israeli ideas – and their own ideas – with Hamas representatives.

Egyptian officials told Haaretz that the sides are very close, but that some more flexibility is needed from the Israeli side.

Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Meshal, at a Sunday press conference in Cairo, said Hamas did not want any further escalation but was prepared for it nonetheless. He also said that if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a ground operation it would cost him the election in January. The Israeli parliamentary elections are scheduled for 22 January 2013.

Sunday night, Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman met with the Israeli envoy for the Cairo negotiations to consider a detailed Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire. The Israeli envoy had returned from Cairo after several hours of discussions with senior Egyptian intelligence officials, in which the Egyptian proposal, which is also supported by Turkey and Qatar, was discussed.  official.

Haaretz notes that Netanyahu, Barak, and Lieberman debated authorizing a ground invasion, but at about 4 a.m. Monday, after six hours of discussions, it was decided to let the diplomatic efforts continue, the senior official said.

Both Netanyahu and Barak are reluctant to launch a ground operation, worried about diplomatic fallout that a ground operation would have on Israel’s relationships with Egypt and Jordan, and the impact it would have on Israel’s image.

Israel wants a cease-fire in two stages. The first stage would be for Hamas and the other Palestinian factions in Gaza to stop the rocket attacks into Israel, and for Israel to reciprocate by halting its air bombardments.

In the second stage, which would follow a few days of quiet, Israel would be prepared to discuss a broader range of issues.

Hamas insists that this broader range of issues – including the lifting of what they consider to be a blockade of the Gaza Strip – should be discussed right away, while the fighting goes on.

Israel’s main demands:

• Any cease-fire should remain in effect for a period of several years
• Egypt should commit itself to prevent the smuggling of weapons from Iran to Gaza. The last two years have seen Gaza turned into a forward Iranian military base, with Iranian engineers designing missile launch sites and helping Hamas build manufacturing facilities for rockets and UAVs. Iran was given this free access to Gaza because since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, Sinai has becoming a no-man’s land without strict Egyptian control
• A 500 meter strip inside Gaza along the border to keep Hamas and other terror group members from the border fence
• International assurance that, if necessary, Israel would be allowed to operate over the border to foil terror attacks.

Hamas main demands:

• Israel naval blockade of Gaza should be removed
• Full opening of all the border crossings to and from Israel
• Full opening ofthe Rafah crossing with Egypt for the passage of people and goods
• International assurances that Israel will stop the assassination of senior members of the Palestinian factions