SyriaWithdrawal of Syrian troops from Golan area heightens Israel’s concerns
For forty years, Syria had deployed four army divisions in positions along the eastern border of the Golan Heights. Israel has considered the Israel-Syria border to be its safest border. With the continuing deterioration of the Syrian regime’s military situation, the Assad government is in the process of redeploying two divisions – some 20,000 soldiers – from the Golan region to Damascus to help defend the capital against growing rebel pressure. Jihadi elements from the anti-Assad coalition have been moving into the security vacuum created along the Israeli border by the withdrawal of the Syrian troops, increasing the opportunities for friction and the likelihood of an Israeli military involvement in Syria.
The anti-regime rebels in Syria are divided into many factions along ethnic, religious, and geographical lines. This factionalism has been one of the major obstacles to forming a coherent, unified alternative to the Assad regime, an alternative which would receive the political support of the non-Sunni groups in Syria and the material support of the United States and the European countries.
Israeli security analysts say that one of the more ominous aspects of the geographical distribution of the anti-Assad groups is that the presence of Jihadi elements is especially pronounced in south-west Syria, right along the Israel-Syria border.
What is more, the freedom of action of these groups is set to grow as the besieged Syrian government has been pulling thousands of soldiers from the border area in order the strengthen the regime’s defenses near and around Damascus.
The Guardian reports that the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the border region with Israel is likely to be followed by the withdrawal of UN observation force – UNDOF — from the area. These forces have been in place since early 1974.
The Israeli military has been reporting that Jihadi rebel groups have been observed moving into the vacuum left by the withdrawal of the Syrian military. The fear is that at least some of the rebels will now use their freedom to stage attacks against Israel.
The Guardian notes that there were four Syrian army divisions positioned along the eastern border of the Golan Heights, and Israel had considered it to be its safest border for forty years.
“They [the Syrian government] have moved some of their best battalions away from the Golan,” a Western diplomatic source told the Guardian. “They have replaced some of them with poorer-quality battalions, which have involved reducing manpower. The moves are very significant.”
Israeli military analysts say that withdrawal of Syrian forces from the border area could amount to as many as two divisions, which is about 20,000 soldiers.
“UNDOF is of the highest importance, now more than ever,” one senior Israeli government official told the Guardian. “We know some participant countries are having second thoughts and we’re concerned about that. We are talking to them to try to understand what they plan on doing if the going gets rougher. We know some are hesitating, and it’s a problematic situation.
“We are also talking to New York [the UN headquarters] about whether there could be a replacement in case one contingent pulls out. We don’t envision a scenario in which UNDOF dissolves but we are very aware of the fragility of the situation.”
Another senior Israeli official said: “It’s clear UNDOF is having very serious problems in meeting its challenges. But Israeli national security figures are very skeptical as to the real utility of international forces in dealing with our security issues.
“We are very concerned [about the Golan]. Since 1974 the Golan has been remarkably quiet. That has now changed, and we are following the situation very closely. As you know, we are building a fence along the border and monitoring matters very closely. We are aware of different actors in close proximity to the border, and we are watching them very closely.”
Brigadier General Baruch Speigel, the former commander of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) liaison unit responsible for relations with peacekeeping forces, said: “It’s a very sensitive situation [with UNDOF]. It’s important to find a mechanism to allow them to stay, but I’m not sure if it’s possible because of the situation in Syria.
“If the UN is unable to fulfill its mission, this is a big, big dilemma. No one can tell you the bottom line. We have never faced this situation, but we have to act very responsibly. But worst-case scenarios can bring us worst-case answers.”
The rebellion against the Assad regime began in March 2011 in the southern Syrian town of Deraa. Since January, the Jihadi rebel groups have made major territorial gains in the area between Derra and the city of Quneitra, which sits on the border between the Golan Heights and Syria.
The fact that the CIA is using military bases in Jordan to train non-Jihadi Syrian rebels is at least partially explained by this geographic reality. The first goal of such training is to strengthen the secular elements among the rebel factions.
Sources told the Guardian that another goal is for some of the U.S.-trained rebels to be deployed to the Golan region to act as a buffer between the jihadists and the Israeli military. This would reassure Israel, already on edge because of the large arsenal of chemical weapons in Syria, and lessen the chances for friction along the border.
