SyriaIsrael warns Assad: if you attack Israel, you “risk forfeiting [your] regime”

Published 16 May 2013

Israel has issued a highly unusual public warning to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The warning, couched in no uncertain terms, consists of two parts: First, if Syria and Iran again try to ship game-changing weapon system to Hezbollah, Israel will destroy these shipments, as it has already done three times, on 30 January, 3 May, and 5 May. Second, if Syria retaliated against Israel in the wake of such attacks, Israel would inflict crippling blows on the Assad regime and force Assad from power.

As the Assad regime and its main ally, Iran, insist on continuing their efforts to transfer sophisticated weapons systems, and possibly chemical weapons, to Hezbollah, a senior Israeli official on Wednesday took the highly unusual step of issuing a stern and explicit public warning to Bashar al-Assad:

  • First, if Syria and Iran again try to ship game-changing weapon system to Hezbollah, Israel will destroy these shipments, as it has already done three times, on 30 January, 3 May, and 5 May
  • Second, if Syria retaliates against Israel in the wake of such attacks, then Israel will inflict crippling blows on the Assad regime and force it from power

The Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told the New York Times: “Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. The transfer of such weapons to Hezbollah will destabilize and endanger the entire region.”

“If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies,” the official said, “he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.”

The official, who consulted with the highest levels of military and government in Israel to make sure he was delivering a message on which all decision makers agree, contacted the New York Times on Wednesday on his own initiative.

In the 30 January strike, Israel destroyed a shipment of advanced SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles which would have allowed Hezbollah a measure of air protection over south Lebanon

In the 3 May and 5 May attacks, Israel destroyed hundreds off advanced Fateh-110 mid-range missile which Iran shipped to Hezbollah. The missile would have allowed Hezbollah to hit targets in central Israel withy great accuracy

The Syrian government kept quiet after the first attack. The second and third attacks, however, were closer to Damascus and to the cameras of foreign TV crews. The 3 May attack destroyed parts of the military section of Damascus International Airport, destroying warehouses in which Iranian weapons were stored before being shipped to Hezbollah. The Israeli attack also destroyed fuel depots and a Syrian transport plane . The 5 May attack took place in a secretive base not too far from Damascus.

The Syrian government publicly condemned Israel for the two attacks, saying they “opened the door to all possibilities.” The Syrian deputy foreign minister, Faisal Mekdad, said in an interview with Agence France-Presse, “We will respond immediately and harshly to any additional attack by Israel.” He described the Israeli strikes as a “declaration of war.”

Both Assad and Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah leader, have publicly said that the Israel-Syria border, which has been quiet since the 1973 war, would now become a “resistance front” in response to Israeli aggression.

In his comments to the Times, the Israeli official noted that “Israel has so far refrained from intervening in Syria’s civil war and will maintain this policy as long as Assad refrains from attacking Israel directly or indirectly.”

“Israel,” he said, “will continue its policy of interdicting attempts to strengthen Hezbollah, but will not intercede in the Syrian civil war as long as Assad desists from direct or indirect attacks against Israel.”