TerrorismSeries of spectacular attacks indicates growing weakness of African terrorist groups: experts

Published 25 September 2013

Islamic terrorists in Africa launched a few spectacular attacks this year, the last one on the Westgate mall in Nairobi. Terrorism experts argue, however, that such spectacular attacks may, in fact, be a sign of growing weakness, even desperation, on the part of these terrorist groups, rather than a sign of strength and confidence. These experts say these attacks, and other, smaller ones, may well be the result of the growing challenges these various Jihadi groups face, and an indication that these groups are now on the defensive.

Kenyan soldiers prepare to enter Westgate mall // Source: presstv.ir

Islamic terrorists in Africa launched a few spectacular attacks this year, the last one on the Westgate mall in Nairobi. It was preceded by a grisly massacre at a boarding school in north Nigeria, a daring attack on a gas drilling compound in Algeria, and an effort to turn north Mali into an independent, Sharia-ruled state.

Terrorism experts argue, however, that such spectacular attacks may, in fact, be a sign of growing weakness, even desperation, on the part of these terrorist groups, rather than a sign of strength and confidence.

The New York Times reports that

These experts argue that these attacks, and other, smaller ones, may well be the result of the growing challenges these various Jihadi groups face, and an indication that these groups are now on the defensive as a result of more coherent government policies and a growing – and more effective — counterterrorism assistance from the United States, France, the EU, and Israel.

These spectacular attacks, analysts say, are like flares in the night, a “we are still here” signal sent by the terrorist groups to supporters, potential recruits, and opponents.

“Movements that are retreating can also pull off big-time media splashes,” Jean-Pierre Filiu, a specialist at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris, told the Times.

Other analyst do not agree that the recent spate of spectacular attacks is necessarily a sign of weakness or the fact that these groups have been thrown on the defensive, but they note that the purpose of such attacks is propaganda, not tactical gains.

Still, terrorism specialists argue that the growing weakness of these groups must be one of the main motivator for such attacks.

Al Shabab, for example, used to control large areas of Somalia, but persistent attacks by military units from Kenya, Ethiopia, and the African Union have expelled it from much of the territory it thought of as its own.

“A weakened Shabab is a greater threat outside Somalia than a stronger Shabab,” Ken Menkhaus, a Somalia scholar and a specialist on al Shabab at Davidson College, wrote. “The Westgate [Mall] attack is the latest sign of the group’s weakness,” he said. “It was a desperate, high-risk gamble by Shabab to reverse its prospects.”

Other recent examples:

  • The attack on the Algerian desert gas plant last January, in which thirty-nine foreign workers were killed, was launched after France, a week earlier, had begun its military campaign to evict the Islamists who took control of north Mali.
  • The French campaign itself began in early January when a column of Islamist militants left the Islamist-controlled north Mali in the direction of the Mali capital. The Islamist moved to try and occupy the rest of Mali after their control of north Mali, in place since late April 2012, appeared threatened by a growing discontent with the strict Sharia rules they had imposed on the restive Tuareg population.
  • Islamists militant attacked in Niger in May after the French campaign had destroyed their camps in neighboring Mali and forced them to scatter.
  • In Nigeria, a growingly aggressive government campaign against the Boko Haram Islamist group, especially since May, when the government announced a major assault on Islamist redoubts in northeast Nigeria, has been pushing the group’s militants back. Initially, the group reacted to the military’s campaign by replacing its leader and adopting what appeared to be a more moderate tack, but recent killing of civilians in and around the group’s former bastion of Maiduguri indicate the Boko Haram, too, reacts to setbacks and defeats by lashing out.

Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos, a terrorism expert at the University of Paris’s French Institute of Geopolitics, told the Times that earlier fears about close cooperation and coordination among Africa’s Islamist groups have not materialized. “There is a kind of tactical complicity, which is different from a strategic coordination,” he said. “This is about individuals. There is a sort of migration of combatants.”

The important thing to note, security experts and analysts say, is that the al Shabab’s attack on the Westgate mall is similar to the how modern terrorist doctrine has been employed in other conflicts – for example, by the Algerian FLN rebels who fought for independence from the French in the 1950s: create a dramatic, headline-grabbing event to put yourself back on the map.

“It’s the only way to get recruits and seem relevant,” said Mathieu Guidère, a terrorism specialist at the University of Toulouse. “It’s an action of propaganda and recruitment, to show that jihadism is the best way.”