Infrastructure protectionJapan exceedingly vulnerable to sea level rise

Scientists say that Japan might be one of the most at-risk nations when it comes to the consequences of sea-level rise.

Japan Times reports that the most recent UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment predicts that sea levels will “rise by 1-3 feet by 2100.” Even more troubling, should Antarctic ice loss exceed expectations — of which there is evidence that the article cites — then these estimates would have to be “revised upward.”

This forecast proves to be exceptionally dangerous for Japan, a nation that has a coastline 30,000 km long, much of it in largely low-elevation regions. Additionally, about 80 percent of the country’s industry and population are located in these zones.

Multiple studies, some by scientists, other by economists such as those at the Asian Development Bank, concluded in 2013 that storms with higher seas could lead to thousands of deaths, the destruction of 1.4 million homes, and damages in a range from billions of dollars tohundreds of billions of dollars.

Environmental researcher Masahiko Isobe came to the conclusion in a 2013 study that a two-foot rise in sea levels would lead to a wave height which would be three times larger by the time the wave met the coast. Further, there is an elevated risk of liquefaction – in which soil becomes oversaturated and loses strength — which would be particularly devastating on Japan’s coasts which are mostly composed of granular soil types.

Given these worrying predictions, the Japanese Ministry of the Environment is working on plans that define which issues are priorities for a range of time windows. These include the short term (ten years), middle term (10-30 years), and long term (30-100 years), beginning in 2015. Some methods include reducing greenhouse gas emissions, identifying at risk areas, and elevating or remodeling facilities.

The government has pledge one trillion yen for nationwide disaster prevention, which includes the strengthening of levees in port cities such as Tokyo with an eye toward the next 200 years.

Much of these measures come in the face of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, which devastated facilities like the Fukushimi Daiichi nuclear power plant — largely regarded as one of the most devastating natural disasters the country had faced.

Kazuya Yasuhara, a professor at Ibaraki University’s Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science, told the paper that preparing for a 3-foot sea level rise is possible, provided further disasters of that magnitude do not divert the appropriation of funding and attention which are needed to ensure future coastal safety.