Planetary securityFear no asteroid: An interview with astronomer Judit Györgyey-Ries
Should we fear that someday a huge asteroid would fulfill one of the apocalyptic scenarios envisaged for Earth, when a space rock smashes into our planet causing a global disaster? Judit Györgyey-Ries, an experienced astronomer at the University of Texas’ McDonald Observatory becalms the worried doomsdayers with a scientific approach to the matter.
Should we fear that someday a huge asteroid would fulfill one of the apocalyptic scenarios envisaged for Earth, when a space rock smashes into our planet causing a global disaster? Judit Györgyey-Ries, an experienced astronomer at the University of Texas’ McDonald Observatory becalms the worried doomsdayers with a scientific approach to the matter. In an interview with astrowatch.net, she discusses potential asteroid threats, her current research and misinterpretation of her words by tabloid newspapers.
Astrowatch.net:Some of the tabloid newspapers like The Mirror got you wrong citing you that the asteroid 2012 TC4 will hit the Earth in October 2017, what exactly have they misunderstood?
Judit Györgyey-Ries: According to the calculation of the JPL NEO [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Near-Earth Object] office there is zero chance that the asteroid will hit in 2017. There will be a very close encounter on 12 October 2017 (Universal Time date), when the distance between the center of the Earth and the asteroid is only 0.0009624 AU, that is 14,398 km. It is close, but still a miss. According to the Minor Planet Center the encounter is not that tight it will be 0.0017 AU, which is 254,316 km, about three quarter the way to the Moon. Also they latched onto the larger limit of the size estimate, which would of course make the consequences of an impact more severe.
Astrowatch.net: So there’s really a very slim chance of this asteroid hitting the Earth, is it?
Györgyey-Ries: Yes, but the possible collisions are between 2020 and 2026. Whether it happens at all, or when will it happen depends on the exact circumstances of the flyby in 2017.
Astrowatch.net: Is there any other potential impactor that we should be aware of in the coming years?
Györgyey-Ries: There are some, you can worry about, but the probabilities are very low. You can check all the known possible impactors on the NEO JPL website.
It is not easy to interpret the numbers, but if you choose an object and click on the cumulative impact probability it will tell you how to interpret it as a %, 1 in XXXX or even more enlightening, it gives you the “will not hit” probability.
All the risks are quite small except for 2010 RF12, but it is estimated to be about 7m, so it will disintegrate in the upper atmosphere without bothering anybody.
