IranThe military option against Iran: Not a single strike, but a sustained campaign
The new, 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP, is one weapon the United would likely use if a decision is made to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Military analysts say that while the destruction of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure will not be easy, it can be done. They also agree that it would halt Iran’s nuclear program only temporarily, and that it would take Iran three to four years to rebuild its nuclear capacity. “A single military strike would only delay an Iranian drive for a finite period so a credible military option would have to envision a long-term campaign of repeated follow-up strikes as facilities are rebuilt or new targets identified,” says one analyst. “This is within the U.S. capability, but would require policy consistency and sustained determination across several U.S. administrations. What is crucial is not the bomb, but a multiyear campaign of vigilance and precise intelligence of new targets.”
If negotiations in Vienna to curb Iran’s nuclear program fail, and if at some point a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be deemed necessary, the U.S. Air Force’s new, 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb would likely be used to target nuclear facilities buried deep underground.. There are those, however, who question for how long such an attack would halt the Iranian programs.
As Bloomberg reports, the 509th Bomb Wing of the Air Force is now equipped to carry the 15-ton bunker busting bombs – the largest non-nuclear ordnance ever created – developed for the purpose of destroying deeply buried targets.
“The military option isn’t used once and set aside,” said Army General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “It remains in place, so we will always have options and the massive ordnance penetrator is just one of them.”
President Obama has frequently said that he is not ruling out any options for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. Some hawks in the Senate argue that military action against Iran would take only a matter of days.
Some in the American intelligence community, however, have concluded that a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would do little to halt the nuclear program for any length of time.
“[The] U.S. strikes might set Iran’s program back two-to-four years, but it can’t destroy it,” said Senator Angus King (I-Maine).“You can’t bomb knowledge out of them, and probably all doubt would be erased that Iran would respond by pursuing a nuclear weapons program.”
Others agreed that a military strike would achieve little beyond a temporary disruption of Iran’s program.
“A single military strike would only delay an Iranian drive for a finite period so a credible military option would have to envision a long-term campaign of repeated follow-up strikes as facilities are rebuilt or new targets identified,” said Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst for the Congressional Research Service. “This is within the U.S. capability, but would require policy consistency and sustained determination across several U.S. administrations. What is crucial is not the bomb, but a multiyear campaign of vigilance and precise intelligence of new targets.”
Former secretary of defense Robert Gates noted in April 2009 that air strikes “will only buy us time and send the program deeper and more covert.” Bombing “would also bring together a divided nation and make them absolutely committed to obtaining nuclear weapons.”
Among the potential targets would be a fuel enrichment complex in Natanz, a heavy water reactor facility near Arak, and a uranium conversion facility along with research reactors east of the city of Esfahan. The toughest target, U.S. military and intelligence officials have said, is the Fordow site, buried deep beneath a mountain about twenty miles from the holy city of Qum.
While the threat of force is real, others see the bomb as more of a bargaining chip in the current negotiations.
“We have the capability to shut down, set back and destroy the Iranian nuclear program,” said Defense Secretary Ashton Carter. “And, I believe the Iranians know that and understand that.”
The talks in Vienna are expected to extend until 7 July, when diplomats are planning to draft a final agreement.
