Quick takes // By Ben FrankelOn symptoms and underlying conditions

In the last few days, Israelis in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and other cities have been facing a spontaneous, from-the-bottom-up campaign of violence by (mostly) Palestinian youth wielding, in most cases, no more than kitchen knives.

Yesterday saw four attacks by Palestinians on Israelis:

• Two young Palestinian boarded a bus in Jerusalem, one of them carrying a gun and the other a knife. They attacked the riders on the bus, killing two and injuring seven before the police killed one of the attackers and seriously wounded the other.
• Shortly after the attack on the bus, a Palestinian killed a man on a near-by street by running him over with his car. He then got out of the car and tried to stab people on the sidewalk but was prevented from doing so by policemen who wrestled him to the ground.
• Later the same morning, a 22-year old Palestinian used a knife to attack one man at a bust station in the town of Ra’anana. Several Israelis jumped on the Palestinian attacker and beat him repeatedly, seriously injuring him. The police had to protect the injured Palestinian and push back angry Israelis who wanted to kill him on the spot.
• About an hour later, in the same town, a 28-year old Palestinian stabbed four Israelis, injuring one of them seriously. An Israeli cab driver ran over the Palestinian with his cab, injuring him, and several Israelis were then able to subdue him until police arrived.

These four attacks followed four attacks in Jerusalem on Sunday. In the most serious attacks, a 13-year old Israeli teen was seriously injured by two Palestinian youths wielding knives, who then also attacked and seriously injured a 25-year old Israeli. Both attacks occurred in the Pisgat Ze’ev neighborhood. The two attackers were confronted by police, and one of them, a 17-year old, was killed.

Later that evening a young Palestinian tried to grab a weapon from an IDF soldier, but the soldier shot and killed him. About the same time, a Palestinian woman tried to stab a policeman near police HQ in Jerusalem, but was prevented from doing so.

Analysts examining the wave of recent attacks point out to several discernible patterns and characteristics:

• Most of the Palestinian attackers are in their teens
• Four of the attackers were women 
• None of the attackers had any known affiliation with any terrorist group
• Some of the attackers appear to be deeply religious
• All of the attackers, except two, were residents of East Jerusalem, which was annexed to Israel in in 1967 (two of the attackers were Israeli Arabs). This means that the attackers carried Israeli identity papers and could move easily between East and West Jerusalem.

The analysts say that these spontaneous, “lone wolf” attacks are impossible to predict or pick up by traditional intelligence means since the perpetrators, in many cases, decide to go on a rampage a short time before doing so. Moreover, since they are not members of an organized terrorist cell, informers planted by Israel intelligence in such cells cannot provide any warnings about impending attacks.

The Israeli security services would now have to find an answer to knife-wielding lone-wolves.

There are no indication so far that the Palestinian population in the Palestinian territories is eager to support a third intifada. Also, the security services of the Palestinian Authority (PA) have been diligent in trying to keep a lid on Palestinian anger and frustration.

Last week Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some right-wing cabinet ministers charged that the PA and Abu Mazen, the PA premier, were “inciting” and encouraging the attacks. Both the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security service, and Aman, the IDF’s intelligence branch, presented the government with evidence which contradicted these charges, and over the last two days Netanyahu, if grudgingly, publicly admitted that the PA was exerting considerable efforts to calm down the situation.

This wave of attacks may soon recede, but another eruption of violence will surely come soon unless the underlying conditions are dealt with.

One condition is nearly 50-years old: The continuing occupation of Palestinian lands by Israel, and the continuing systematic disenfranchisement of millions of Palestinians.

The second condition is new: The growing pressure by Israeli religious fanatics – one or two of them are cabinet ministers — to change the status-quo which has governed Al Aqsa since 1967. This goes beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and has the potential of adding an explosive, religious dimension to an already tense and volatile situation.

The lone-wolf attacks are an immediate security problem with which Israel’s security services must deal. This security problem, however, is only the symptom of a deeper, more pernicious condition.

As is the case with a medical condition, dealing with the symptoms would just not be sufficient.

Ben Frankel is the editor of the Homeland Security News Wire