Coastal resilienceDetecting sea-level rise acceleration to improve U.K. coastal flood defenses

Accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise and the time required to upgrade coastal flood defense infrastructure, such as the Thames Barrier, will be investigated as part of a new research initiative.

Southampton University says that the E-Rise project, led by the University of Southampton and involving the National Oceanography Center, will aim to better understand the likely lead times for upgrading or replacing coastal defense infrastructure around the United Kingdom during the twenty-first century. It will also assess whether we could detect sea-level accelerations earlier to provide sufficient lead time for action.

Associate Professor Ivan Haigh, from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton, who is leading the project, says: “There is strong observational evidence that global mean sea-levels are rising and the rate of rise is predicted to accelerate, significantly threatening hundreds of billions of pounds of infrastructure around the U.K. coast. Substantial upgrades or replacements to coastal defenses will therefore be required to maintain existing flood risk management standards.”

Professor Robert Nicholls, from Engineering in the Environment at the University of Southampton, adds: “Upgrading coastal flood defense infrastructure will involve long lead times relating to both planning (time to obtain the financial and political support to carry out the upgrade or replacement) and implementation (time to source the company and materials to carry out the work) of schemes. For example, plans for building the Thames Barrier were started soon after the notorious 1953 North Sea flood, but the Barrier was not operational until 1982 — nearly thirty years later! It is therefore very important that we understanding likely lead times for upgrading/replacing coastal defense infrastructure around the United Kingdom.”

Dr. Francisco Calafat from the National Oceanography Center, says: “The issue of sea-level acceleration is particularly important, as rapid rates of rise will reduce the lead time available for upgrading/replacing defense infrastructure. Moreover, detecting accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise is complicated because of the considerable inter-annual variability evident in sea level at regional/local scales, which ‘swamps’ the smaller underlying acceleration signal. This project will assess whether we could detect sea-level accelerations earlier by removing known sources of variability to provide sufficient lead time for action.”

The Environment Agency and EDF Energy are among the project’s stakeholders. Katy Francis from the Environment Agency’s Thames Estuary 2100 Team, said: “With the rate of sea-level rise increasing due to climate change, coastal flood defense infrastructure around parts of the United Kingdom will need to be upgraded or replaced. We are excited to be partnering with the world leading experts at the University of Southampton and National Oceanography Center in this field of research, and hope the results of their research will enable us to detect sea-level accelerations earlier to provide more time for action.”

Southampton U notes that E-Rise is a one-year project funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part of the Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Program.