Populism resurgent“Authoritarian populism” becoming driving force in Western democracies

Published 28 November 2016

The election victory of Donald Trump, Brexit,the rise of former fringe parties like UKIP and France’s Front National are part of a political trend which could define the next decade, according to research by polling firm YouGov. YouGov’s polling found that “authoritarian populism” was a force driving many voters across Europe and the United States, sharing notions such as opposition to immigration; suspicion of international coalitions, treaties, and organization; and reluctance to use national power for goals which are termed “globalist” – like human rights or nation-building.

The election victory of Donald Trump, Brexit,the rise of former fringe parties like UKIP and France’s Front National are part of a political trend which could define the next decade, according to research by polling firm YouGov.

YouGov’s polling found that “authoritarian populism” was a force driving many voters across Europe and the United States, sharing notions such as opposition to immigration; suspicion of international coalitions, treaties, and organization; and reluctance to use national power for goals which are termed “globalist” – like human rights or nation-building.

The Washington Post reports that groups sharing the ideology include UKIP, the Front National, the German Alternative für Deutschland, and the populist elements in Trump’s campaign and the new administration.

Researchers say all these groups and parties, and many more, are “branches of the same tree.”

Statista has created a ranked chart for the Independent, and YouGov notes that it shows that of twelve ranked European countries, five saw more than half of respondents identify with what has been classified as authoritarian populist views.

The figure stood at 48 percent in the United Kingdom, where the UKIP and parts of the Conservative Party are judged to represent to preferences of the movement. 

Voters who said they supported the various groups exhibiting authoritarian populism tended to be older and with less access to higher education. Voters who said they voted for center-right parties or liberal center-left parties were more likely to be younger and have attended university.

YouGov found 82 percent of voters held the views in Romania, while the figure stood at zero in Lithuania and under 20 percent in Germany, as political divisions shift from traditional left vs right to those for and against the perceived “establishment.”

YouGov said the implications for elections across Europe could be “huge” as Marine Le Pen continues her contention for the French presidency and the AfD gains support ahead of Germany’s Bundestag elections next year.

“Whilst in each of the twelve countries some variation of the ‘liberal left’ currently constitutes the largest single political bloc, in seven countries the combined AP [authoritarian populist] voter groups represent a greater potential electoral force,” YouGov said.

“Should a politician or party be able to find a way to unite significant numbers of AP voters under their banner, they will be able to issue a serious challenge to the established political order.

“Ultimately, there is a very real chance that the rise of authoritarian populism could be the defining political phenomenon of the next decade, and not just in Europe, but across developed democracies.”

The Independent notes that term “authoritarian populism” was first used in the 1980s by academics analyzing the politics of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, finding they shared a core set of attitudes including cynicism over human rights, anti-immigration, and a strong emphasis on national defense.