Flu vaccineFlu vaccine supply gaps may intensify flu seasons, make pandemics deadlier

More than 50 million people died in the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19. Its 100th anniversary this flu season serves as a reminder to close flu vaccine supply gaps that may be costing hundred to thousands of lives now and could cost many more when the next “big one” strikes, researchers say.

U.S. flu vaccine distribution logistics could use an update, according to Pinar Keskinocak. The researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology co-led a recent study that compared the current approach with a proposed allocation method calculated to save many more lives in a pandemic or similar influenza outbreak.

The study’s recommendations, which apply to resupplying vaccine stocks during a running outbreak, boil down to this: To put a bigger dent in the spread of flu, replenish vaccine stocks in regions where they are being used up and don’t replenish them in areas where vaccines are just sitting on shelves, because few people are getting flu shots there.

A simple tweak
The tweak in the supply chain could also save thousands of lives annually in regular flu seasons in the U.S., which can be plenty deadly. Reportedly, 80,000 people died in the 2017-18 flu season. For comparison’s sake, murder took about 19,300 lives in 2017 in the U.S.

“Even seasonal flu kills thousands to tens of thousands of people each year, so we would benefit immediately,” said Keskinocak, who is William W. George Chair and Professor in Georgia Tech’s H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering and Director for the Center of Health and Humanitarian Systems. “In a pandemic, nearly no one would have natural immunity, so the death toll could be significantly high if we don’t improve vaccine coverage.”