Stern warning: Climate expert emphasizes the fierce urgency of now

However, he warned, a world with a net of zero carbon dioxide emissions within a few decades will be absolutely necessary for society to maintain its current form.

“The net zero is fundamental,” Stern said. “That’s not some strange economist’s aspiration. The net zero is the science. If you want to stabilize temperatures, you’re going to have to stabilize concentrations. Stabilizing concentrations means net zero.”

Stern’s lecture, “Unlocking the Inclusive Growth Story of the 21st century: The Drive to the Zero-Carbon Economy,” was delivered to an audience of over 100 people in MIT’s Room 2-190, a lecture hall.

As part of his remarks, Stern contended that the overhaul of energy production and consumption could have leveling economic benefits globally. Indeed, a successful transformation of energy use would almost by definition have a broad impact, he said, since about 70 percent of energy involves infrastructure and 70 percent of growth in coming decades may be located in the developing world.

Multiplying those factors, Stern said, “Half of the story is infrastructure in developing countries and emerging markets.”

Among many specific urban climate measures, Stern suggested that, for instance, “if cities banned internal-combustion engine cars [from] coming into the [city] centers by some date, say, 2025, that would radically change the kinds of cars that come to market.” And he touted the ability of policymakers to effect change, citing the massive global switch to more efficient LED light bulbs as one case where lawmaking has created massive improvements in energy efficiency. 

It’s not enough to talk
Stern is an accomplished economist who has studied development and growth extensively, and shifted his focus to include climate economics over the last two decades. He is professor of economics and government and chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. 

Stern may be best-known in public for his work as a minister in Britain’s Treasury Department, where he spearheaded a major report on climate and economics, released in 2006. In 2007, Stern was made a life peer in Britain in 2007, and sits in the House of Lords — as a nonpartisan member, he reminded the audience on Tuesday. Stern was chief economist of the World Bank from 2000 to 2003, and president of the British Academy from 2013 to 2017.

As Stern remarked at the beginning of his talk, he also spent a year at MIT in the early 1970s, working with MIT economist Robert M. Solow. Stern said the Institute has “been my U.S. home” through the years.

At one point, Stern asked audience members to raise their hands if they were economists; a significant percentage of people in the room did so. 

“Those of you who are not economists,” Stern quipped, “it was your decision, and you have to live with it.”

Stern was introduced at the event by Paul Joskow, the Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics, Emeritus, at MIT, and a faculty member at the Institute for over 45 years. Joskow also led off the question-and-answer session after Stern’s talk with a query about rural land use and its impact on climate. Stern responded that, although he had emphasized urban policy in his talk, rural policies such as reforestation should play a significant role in capturing excess carbon dioxide.

Stern fielded a wide variety of queries, including one about the economics profession from an audience member who asked: “As an economist working on an issue that affects the world in a relatively short time frame, is it enough, is it persuasive enough, to be doing research … and doing presentations like this?”

“No,” Stern responded instantly. “That’s why I spend a lot of time doing other things.” In recent years, Stern has worked with high-level government officials on climate policy matters in China, India, France, and for the U.N., among other projects.

As advice for economics students concerned about climate, Stern suggested: “Invest in your own skill.” And he left no doubt about his own view on the importance of the climate challenge.

“We have the biggest problem facing humankind,” Stern said.

Peter Dizikes is the social sciences, business, and humanities writer at the MIT News Office. The article is reprinted with permission of MIT News