Why the Great Plains has such epic weather

So the day or two before the cyclone develops, temperatures are often well above average, only to quickly plummet as the strong cold front associated with the cyclone blasts through. In other words, the rapid changes in temperature that we see east of the Rockies are not just an interesting aspect of these storms – they are key to their development and intensification.

When these cyclones develop in the fall and spring, they can generate many forms of unusual and hazardous weather, sometimes just a few counties apart. Visitors in eastern Colorado are often surprised to hear warnings for wildfires, tornadoes and a blizzard at the same time. As climatologist Brian Brettschneider has shown, much of the Great Plains region averages well over a foot of snow – after the first day 70-degree day of the year! And Colorado is the only state in the nation where every month of the year is the average wettest month of the year in some part of the state.

Forecasting challenges
There is much at stake during major storms in the central U.S. This region has a history of deadly flooding, and droughts, wildfires, tornadoes and hailstorms here can cause billions of dollars in losses and damage.

Thanks to dedicated research and increasing computer power, weather forecasts continue to improve steadily. The National Weather Service’s forecasts for this year’s March and April cyclones were spot-on. But forecasting more localized snowstorms and thunderstorms is still very challenging given this region’s complex terrain. This is a subject of continued research.

There also remain important questions about the effects of climate change on the northern and southern Great Plains, thanks to the huge variability in the weather. We have seen a clear warming trend, as in most parts of the nation, but it is hard to pin down how this warming is influencing factors such as droughts, severe weather and snowstorms.

After severe droughts in many areas in 2018, 2019 thus far has been one of the wettest years on record. Is this just a reflection of our naturally highly variable climate, or part of a long-term trend associated with the overall warming of the planet?

Despite these challenges, meteorologists and climatologists are passionate about figuring out how the atmosphere works, making better predictions of its behavior and communicating that information to decision makers and the public. Events like this spring’s major storms remind us that we all need to be weather-ready, year-round.

Russ Schumacher is Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science and Colorado State Climatologist, Colorado State University. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.