Perspective: Foreign influence efforts (FIE’s)Managing and Mitigating Foreign Election Interference

Published 22 July 2019

President Donald Trump has repeatedly shown that he does not take the issue of Russian interference in elections seriously, most recently at the G-20 summit in Japan when he issued a “wink-wink” warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin when pressed on the issue by reporters. This is no laughing matter. While much of the media coverage has focused on Russian interference in U.S. elections, this is not just an American problem. As our new report on online foreign influence efforts (FIEs) demonstrates, this is a global problem. Since 2013, Russia has conducted at least 38 distinct influence campaigns targeting 19 different countries—and Russia isn’t alone: 53 distinct online FIEs were launched by Russia and other countries between 2013 and the end of 2018, and several remain ongoing today. Russia is by far the most active state conducting FIEs. About 72 percent of the campaigns were conducted solely by Russia, which had 29 distinct operations ongoing in 2017.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly shown that he does not take the issue of Russian interference in elections seriously, most recently at the G-20 summit in Japan when he issued a “wink-wink” warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin when pressed on the issue by reporters.

This is no laughing matter. Such warnings—even when they are issued seriously—are not working. For example, in August 2018, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton warned Russians not to meddle in the upcoming midterms. Had the warnings worked, the Russian government would not have tried to manipulate the election and the United States would not have needed to protect the integrity of the midterms from Russia. But just a few months later, U.S. Cyber Command reportedly launched offensive cyber operations against Russian targets, and while it was apparently able to block Russian troll farms on Election Day, its defensive actions suggest that multiple warnings by the United States did not dissuade Russia’s efforts to interfere. Russia has continued its efforts since, using myriad social media platforms to spread disinformation in an attempt to sway elections and call into question the stability of democracies.

While much of the media coverage has focused on Russian interference in U.S. elections, this is not just an American problem. Arya Goel, Diego A. Martin, and Jacob N. Shapiro write in Lawfare that as their new report on online foreign influence efforts (FIEs) demonstrates, this is a global problem. Since 2013, Russia has conducted at least 38 distinct influence campaigns targeting 19 different countries—and Russia isn’t alone. Defined as (a) coordinated campaigns by one state to affect one or more specific aspects of politics in another state, (b) through media channels, including social media, by (c) producing content designed to appear indigenous to the target state, 53 distinct online FIEs were launched by Russia and other countries between 2013 and the end of 2018, and several remain ongoing today. While many of the FIEs target elections, others focus on discrediting specific political actors, such as the campaign targeting the Syrian Civil Defense (SCD), which involved both Russian and Syrian actors.

Our big-picture analysis shows that Russia is by far the most active state conducting FIEs. About 72 percent of the campaigns were conducted solely by Russia, which had 29 distinct operations ongoing in 2017. Iran has also been increasing its activity steadily since 2016, targeting Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and the United States to date. The remainder of the FIEs are split evenly between China and Saudi Arabia. We also identified at least 40 purely domestic online influence campaigns, in which state actors targeted their own populations in ways designed to mask the government’s involvement.