EpidemicsCoronavirus: We Need to Start Preparing for the Next Viral Outbreak Now

By David E. Bloom and Daniel Cadarette

Published 20 February 2020

The coronavirus outbreak is officially a crisis – let’s not waste it. Undeniably, the international community is taking the matter very seriously, as it should, given that the death total from the COVID-19 epidemic already well surpasses that from SARS in the early 2000s. However, even if the international response to COVID-19 has been relatively strong, it may rightfully be considered too little too late, with the epidemic already underway. That’s a mistake we shouldn’t repeat. As global health researchers, we study the full societal value of vaccination and other interventions to combat infectious disease. Given the tremendous costs associated with epidemics, it’s vital that we begin working to prevent the next outbreak, even as the world struggles to fight COVID-19.

The coronavirus outbreak is officially a crisis – let’s not waste it.

Undeniably, the international community is taking the matter very seriously, as it should, given that the death total from the COVID-19 epidemic already well surpasses that from SARS in the early 2000s.

The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern, researchers across the globe are furiously working on vaccines against COVID-19, and governments including the U.S. and U.K. have allocated more funds to boost research and development.

However, even if the international response to COVID-19 has been relatively strong, it may rightfully be considered too little too late, with the epidemic already underway. That’s a mistake we shouldn’t repeat.

As global health researchers, we study the full societal value of vaccination and other interventions to combat infectious disease. Given the tremendous costs associated with epidemics, it’s vital that we begin working to prevent the next outbreak, even as the world struggles to fight COVID-19.

A Predictable Scenario
What’s remarkable about the current situation is its predictability.

It was predictable that the outbreak would emanate from contact between humans and animals – and that bats may have been involved. It was predictable that its epicenter would be in a densely populated urban area and that it spread rapidly via international air travel.

And it was even predictable that an unknown pathogen would be just as likely to spring an epidemic as a known one.

As was the case with SARS and Zika, the pathogen responsible for the current epidemic was not on anyone’s radar before it began wreaking havoc in China and beyond.

It was also predictable that a rapidly progressing epidemic would have significant and wide-ranging health, economic and social impacts.

Less than two months into the epidemic, China’s health system has already experienced major strain, with Wuhan in particular struggling to provide quality care to coronavirus patients. In addition, this may be crowding out treatment of other conditions.

The economic impacts include major disruptions to manufacturing, supply chains, retail salesinternational travel and education.

And the resulting political and social challenges continue to pile up, such as mass quarantinesdiscrimination, the spread of misinformationmistrust in government and extra strain on already tense international relations.

The total costs of this epidemic are already significant and could get much worse.

The Inevitability of Epidemics
The predictability of the current situation reflects the inevitability of outbreaks and epidemics.