ECDC Warns of Overwhelmed Hospitals, Italy-Type COVID-19 Pattern
In Italy, cases peaked on Mar 21, and the number of cases appear to be decreasing, about 2 weeks after lockdowns were ordered, first in northern Italy, followed a few days later by a similar order for the whole country. Other European countries reporting large numbers of cases are likely to see overrun intensive care unit capacities, similar to what hospitals in northern Italy experienced.
The agency’s analysis of the crude case-fatality rates show that the risk and numbers of deaths increase rapidly in those age 60 and over. Of hospitalized patients, 15 percent have severe disease, and, of those, 12 percent are fatal. Overall, the ECDC said the risk of severe disease is moderate for the general population and very high for older people and those with underlying health conditions.
The group added that, with effective mitigation measures in place, the risk of widespread community transmission is moderate, but the risk is very high if mitigation measures are inadequate.
Italy, with the world’s second most cases, behind China, yesterday reported 5,210 new cases, along with 683 more deaths, raising its respective totals to 74,386 infections and 7,503 deaths.
Spain, the fourth worst-hit country, after the United States, reported 5,552 new infections yesterday, including 443 more deaths, putting its total at 47,601 cases, 3,434 of them fatal. And Germany reported 2,749 new cases, as well as 27 more deaths, lifting its respective totals to 35,740 and 2,749.
Report: China’s Easing of Social Distancing Successful So Far
China yesterday reported no new local cases, though it did report 47 more imported cases, according to the latest daily report from the National Health Commission.
CIDRAP reports that in a related development, a modeling group based at Imperial College of London yesterday published an analysis that suggests China’s easing of strict social distancing measures has at this point been successful. The investigators used intra-city movement as a measure of economic activity. Their analysis for Hong Kong also suggests that intermediate levels of local activity can be maintained while holding off a large outbreak.
The modelers emphasized that the findings don’t preclude future epidemics in China, but they do hint that, after intensive social distancing that contained the disease, the country has so far been successful in exiting them. They also stressed that China’s epidemic is at a more advanced stage, but, once it achieves containment, its experience can help guide other countries.
Some parts of Asia are battling a recurrence of COVID-19 activity, following an initial gush of cases in the wake of China’s outbreak. Hong Kong yesterday reported 24 new cases, including 19 patients who had a travel history. And Singapore yesterday reported 73 new cases, 38 of them imported.
Developments in Egypt, Iran
The WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean office (EMRO) yesterday said it wrapped up a technical mission to Egypt and added that the country has solid efforts under way to control its outbreak, especially in disease detection, contact tracing, lab testing, and patient referral.
In light of local transmission, however, the country has an opportunity to prevent community spread with a whole-of-government approach, officials said. They said the WHO will work with Egypt on infection prevention and control, alternate testing methods, and communication, especially with high-risk groups.
Egypt has reported 442 cases so far, 21 of them fatal, according to the WHO.
In Iran, the Middle East country with the most cases, health officials reported 2,206 more cases and 143 more deaths, putting the respective totals at 27,017 and 2,077.
