PerspectiveIs China winning?

Published 20 April 2020

This year started horribly for China, with a respiratory virus spread in Wuhan, and the Chinese government hiding the truth about it from the world. But the draconian measures taken by the government appears to have worked, and Wuhan is back to normal (to a new, post-COVI-19 normal, that is). The Economist writes that China’s Communist Party hails this as a triumph not only for Chinese science: the country’s vast and well-oiled propaganda machine explains that China brought its epidemic under control thanks to its strong one-party rule – and the fact tat some Western democracies – chief among them the United States – have botched their response to the epidemic shows that Western liberal democracy is an inferior system of government compared to China’s own. “Some, including nervous foreign-policy watchers in the West, have concluded that China will be the winner from the COVID-19 catastrophe. These observers warn that the pandemic will be remembered not only as a human disaster, but also as a geopolitical turning-point away from America,” the Economist writes.

This year started horribly for China, with a respiratory virus spread in Wuhan, and the Chinese government hiding the truth about it from the world, especially from the World Health Organization. But the draconian measures taken by the government appears to have worked, and Wuhan is back to normal (to a new, post-COVI-19 normal, that is). The Economist writes that China’s Communist Party hails this as a triumph not only for Chinese science: the country’s vast and well-oiled propaganda machine explains that China brought its epidemic under control thanks to its strong one-party rule.

China’s broad, sustained propaganda campaign, in addition to extolling the virtues of the Chinese system of government, is now focusing on two additional theses: Blaming the U.S. military for starting the coronavirus epidemic by allowing the virus to escape from a U.S. bioweapon lab, and pointing out that some Western democracies – chief among them the United States – have botched their response to the epidemic, showing that Western liberal democracy is an inferior system of government compared to China’s own.

The Economist writes that some, including nervous foreign-policy watchers in the West, have concluded that China will be the winner from the COVID-19 catastrophe. These observers warn that the pandemic will be remembered not only as a human disaster, but also as a geopolitical turning-point away from America.

The Economist adds:

That view has taken root partly by default. President Donald Trump seems to have no interest in leading the global response to the virus. Previous American presidents led campaigns against HIV/Aids and Ebola. Mr. Trump has vowed to defund the World Health Organization (WHO) for its alleged pro-China bias. With the man in the White House claiming “absolute power” but saying “I don’t take responsibility at all,” China has a chance to enhance its sway.

….

Perhaps, though, China is less interested in running the world than in ensuring that other powers cannot or dare not attempt to thwart it….China’s rulers combine vast ambitions with a caution born from the huge task they have in governing a country of 1.4bn people. They do not need to create a new rules-based international order from scratch. They might prefer to keep pushing on the wobbly pillars of the order built by America after the second world war, so that a rising China is not constrained.

That is not a comforting prospect. The best way to deal with the pandemic and its economic consequences is globally. So, too, problems like organized crime and climate change. The 1920s showed what happens when great powers turn selfish and rush to take advantage of the troubles of others. The COVID-19 outbreak has so far sparked as much jostling for advantage as far-sighted magnanimity. Mr. Trump bears a lot of blame for that. For China to reinforce such bleak visions of superpower behavior would be not a triumph but a tragedy.