U.K. Government’s Tiered COVID-19 Alert Systems Are All Flawed, Warns Disaster Expert
Accommodating the Local
On October 12, Boris Johnson announced that COVID-19 “figures are flashing at us like dashboard warnings on a passenger jet”. After eight months of significant levels of confusion, due to non-standard, changing information that has been haphazardly presented, the answer to the flashing lights, it seems, is to introduce an entirely new local COVID-19 alert level system.
Comprising three tiers that, according to the government, will “simplify and standardize local rules”, it’s three levels are set at medium, high and very high. By developing a simpler and standardized system that can be locally adapted, the chances of confusion will be reduced and will help provide a clearer message tied to specific rules, a key requirement of any warning or alert.
Yet local restrictions need to be tied to the bigger picture. And as social distancing rules are different in each nation, there has long been confusion for those that live near national borders or those travelling. As the new local alerts are only applicable in England, standardization remains limited in use over the UK and across the borders. We need a system that can accommodate local and national needs. This is possible, but demands a clever design.
Alerts Are a Powerful Tool
The government is moving in the direction that other nations use for their alert levels: they have created a website that will tell you your local alert level restrictions, and are issuing some useful graphics that do address prior concerns around clarity and transparency. This is positive. But there is still confusion and fragmentation amongst the public and tensions between local leaders and central government over what tier to assign.
As an expert in alert level systems, I’m not convinced that this new local system will be enough to offset previous failures. There was no mention of the national COVID alert level systems in the recent announcement, so it is not clear how these two systems work together, or if the broader system is now defunct. Why is the UK government continually revising and changing its alert systems? Why is this information still not clear and transparent?
UK chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty has said he is “very confident” the new three tier alerts will slow the spread of coronavirus. But he also stated that even the toughest measures under the new rules “may not be enough to get on top of it”.
The new local alert system can’t last long: it is not designed to incorporate all levels of risk severity and it doesn’t include a fourth tier of “low risk”. This demonstrates that the system is purely responsive, designed for the moment, not for representing all possible scenarios in a clear and standardized manner that would enable people to be prepared.
A distinct lack of expertise from emergency management or civil protection experts is showing loud and clear. The UK has the expertise to do this, so why isn’t it happening?
By acting now to deal with those “flashing dashboard warnings” rather than preparing ahead, these COVID-19 alerts are unlikely to fulfil their potential to help navigate the nation through a challenging winter. The UK deserves more.
Carina Fearnley is Associate Professor in Science and Technology Studies, Director of the UCL Warning Research Centre, UCL.This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.
