Shape of things to comeForecasting the misuse, and abuse, of evolving technologies
New project aims to identify and assesses future threats posed by the abuse of evolving science and technology knowledge; examples could include the development of new infectious bacteria or viruses resistant to known medical treatments, or the invention of materials with camouflaging properties for covert activity
“Imagine the year 1991, in the early days of the World Wide Web,” says Dr. Aharon Hauptman, a Senior Research Fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF) at TAU. “Would we have been able to foresee that something like ‘Google Earth’ and ‘Street View’ would help terrorists to plan an attack in Mumbai in 2008?”
The malevolent use of emerging technologies is the topic of the Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis & Forecasting’s (ICTAF) new interdisciplinary project, Foresight of Evolving Security Threats posed by Emerging Technologies (FESTOS).
The project, which is co-funded by the European Commission, with participation from leading research centers in Europe, identifies and assesses future threats posed by the abuse of evolving science and technology knowledge. Examples could include the development of new infectious bacteria or viruses resistant to known medical treatments, or the invention of materials with camouflaging properties for covert activity.
Dr. Yair Sharan, director of ICTAF and head of the project, stresses that terrorists will increasingly make use of innovative technology to threaten society and cause maximum damage. “The terrorist of the future will be more ‘technological’ and exposed to the latest scientific developments,” he says. “There is a need to try to foresee the development of future threats in order to be better prepared when they appear.”
The FESTOS project will scan major fields in science and technology for potential security threats: information and communication technologies, nanotechnologies, biotechnology, robotics, new materials and convergence technologies. There are many examples of emerging technology that can be morphed into a threat. “A particularly interesting trend is ‘swarm robotics,’ whereby, inspired by the behavior of swarms in nature, large numbers of robots are programmed to coordinate their activities with one another,” says Dr. Hauptman, who notes that robots could become a standard terrorist weapon, even replacing the suicide bomber.
In the coming months, FESTOS will survey international experts in the fields of interest in order to identify areas of concern and create a model for monitoring scientific advancements.
One long-term objective of the program is to produce a database of ongoing scientific developments and potential future risks. According to Dr. Sharan, “this database will not only act as an ‘early warning system’ which identifies potential threats to society, but it will also help assess preventative measures that might keep valuable information from those who seek to harm society, aiding in the creation of future EU security policy.
