AnalysisIsrael's now more likely to attack Iran's nuclear facilities
The test of Arrow 2 — Israel’s defense against Iran’s ballistic missiles — was aborted three times; Hillary Clinton says the United States would extend a “nuclear umbrella” to Arab countries: these two events combine to increase Israel’s anxiety about Iran’s nuclear weapons, and make an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities more likely
Two weeks ago we wrote that the successful test of Iron Dome, the defensive system Israel has developed against short-range rockets and missiles, would advance the cause of regional peace. The reason: Peace between Israel and the Palestinians depends on Israel feeling secure enough to make deep territorial concessions to the Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel has been reluctant to make such concessions because of the security risks they entail. The successful tests of Iron Dome may ease Israel’s security concerns, making concessions more likely and Israeli-Palestinian peace more achievable (“Middle East Peace May Be Closer as Israel Successfully Tests Iron Dome,” 16 July 2009 HSNW).
The same logic — if in reverse — applies to the news of the failure of an upgraded Arrow 2 missile interceptor — Israel’s defense against Iranian ballistic missiles — in a test off the Californian coast. The failure was seen as a serious setback for Israel’s main defense system at a time when Iran is accelerating its long-range ballistic missile program.
The failure of the Arrow 2 test, combined with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement about the united States extending a “nuclear umbrella” to Arab countries (see below), have combined to make Israel more anxious — and an Israeli military attack on Iran nuclear facilities more likely.
The Arrow 2 test
UPI reports that the Arrow test scheduled for July 22 was aborted on three occasions because of technical malfunctions, including communications glitches between the missile and its Israel-developed Green Pine radar, according to Israel and U.S. accounts.
The failure was seen as a morale booster for Iran. Three days after the test failure, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of Iran’s Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps, declared that Tehran was capable of hitting Israel’s nuclear facilities and would do so if attacked. “Our rockets have the precision capabilities to target all the Israeli nuclear sites,” he said on 25 July.
The Arrow 2 system is the long-range element in a multilayered Israeli defense shield to protect the country from missile bombardment. It is designed to shoot down ballistic missiles up to 700 miles from Israel. The failure of the California tests thus leaves the entire Arrow system unproven.
Both the United States and Israel hope that the upgraded Arrow system would serve as a deterrent to any attack on Israel. At the same time, the Americans hope that having a proven defensive system would also persuade Israel not
