Food securityReport warns falling crop yields could spell disaster

A recent study found that as temperatures continue to rise the geographical range of staple crops like corn and beans will become increasingly limited, potentially resulting in massive food shortages.

The study, published by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), noted that food prices have been steadily rising and climate change could cause prices to increase even further.

Using current climate models, researchers mapped “climate hotspots” to measure the impact of rising temperatures on food production. On one map, researchers found that increasing temperatures would make growing certain crops impossible, while another showed which large agricultural regions are sensitive to temperature fluctuations. A third map showed areas where growing food has always been difficult.

“When you put these maps together they reveal places around the world where the arrival of stressful growing conditions could be especially disastrous,” explained Polly Ericksen, the study’s lead author, a senior scientist at the CGIAR’s International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi, Kenya. “These are areas highly exposed to climate shifts, where survival is strongly linked to the fate of regional crop and livestock yields, and where chronic food problems indicate that farmers are already struggling and they lack the capacity to adapt to new weather patterns.”

According to the study, there are currently fifty-six million people who lack food security as temperatures are expected to rise above 86° Fahrenheit. At that temperature, beans are no longer a viable crop, while rice and corn yields suffer. This is particularly problematic as areas expected to exceed this temperature include China and India, the two most populated countries.

It is estimated that in sub-Saharan Africa, where nearly 400 million people grow their food, the farming season will shrink by 5 percent. Meanwhile in critical agricultural regions like northeast Brazil and Mexico, it is projected that by 2050 the growing season will decrease to less than 120 days, the time needed for many crops.

So far Mexico has already seen some of the effects that the report outlines. For the second year in a row heavy rains and high temperatures have hindered Mexico’s mango yields. In the Mexican state of Chiapas the mango crop has fallen 60 percent and the fruit harvested has been inedible.