9/11: nine years onTerror threat to U.S. more complex, diverse, and difficult to detect
A new report by the commissioners of the 9/11 Commission says that terrorism is increasingly taking on an American cast, reflected in the growth of homegrown threats and the movement of terrorists recruited from the United States to areas like the horn of Africa and Yemen; the report concludes that some of the most-feared types of attacks — such as those using nuclear or biological weapons — are now less likely, while smaller, more diffuse — and, hence, more difficult to detect — attacks are more likely; of particular worry: no agency in the U.S. government is charged with monitoring and stopping the radicalization and recruitment of Americans to terrorist ranks
Smaller, lower profile attacks may become the norm // Source: typepad.com
The terrorist threat the United States is facing nine years after the 2001 attacks on New York and Washington is far more difficult to detect but less likely to produce mass-casualty attacks, according to the former leaders of the 9/11 Commission.
A report by the former commissioners, titled “Assessing the Terrorist Threat,” was released Friday. It finds terrorism is increasingly taking on an American cast, reflected in the growth of homegrown threats and the movement of terrorists recruited from the United States to areas like the horn of Africa and Yemen.
The report concludes some of the most-feared types of attacks are now unlikely, such as those using nuclear or biological weapons, or attacks on malls and shopping centers in less-populated cities. Despite al Qaeda’s long-running interest in mass-casualty weapons, it has not shown the capacity to mount attacks with them, the report says.
Siobhan Gorman quotes the report to say that the U.S. government is ill-equipped to counter the newest version of the terrorist threat. The report adds that “American overreactions,” particularly on Capitol Hill and in the media, even to unsuccessful attacks, have arguably played into terrorists’ hands and fuel anti-American sentiment.
“It’s a much more complex and a much more diverse threat than it was” in 2001, former 9/11 Commission Vice Chairman Lee Hamilton told Gorman in an interview. “We lag behind still in developing responses to this threat.”
No agency in the U.S. government, for example, is charged with monitoring and stopping the radicalization and recruitment of Americans to terrorist ranks, he said. “The White House is addressing this challenge through a process that attempts to leverage all the tools the government has to offer,” said spokesman Tommy Vietor.
The report was written by terrorism analysts Peter Bergen and Bruce Hoffman for the national security group of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank. The security group is led by former 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean and Hamilton.
Gorman notes that the study tracks with recent assessments from the director of national intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency highlighting the increasing reliance of al Qaeda and affiliates on people who can easily and legally enter and travel in the United States to plot and mount attacks.
Officials at intelligence agencies and DHS zeroed in on the homegrown threat following a series of attacks and botched plots, including the Fort Hood, Texas, shootings and the attempted Times Square bombing.
Last year, there were ten U.S.-linked jihadi attacks, plots, or incidents involving individuals traveling outside the country to receive terrorist training, the report found. Meanwhile, at least forty-three American citizens or legal residents aligned with militant groups were charged or convicted in terrorism cases in the U.S. and elsewhere in 2009.
“We are seeing more Americans turning on their country, going abroad and making common cause with terrorist groups,” said Bruce Hoffman, one of the report’s authors. “The array of perpetrators and the nature of their plots against America are remarkable and there is no single government agency responsible for deterring radicalization and terrorist recruitment. The terrorists may have found our Achilles heel – we have no way of dealing with this growing problem.”
The report also identifies more and less likely targets and means of attack. More likely targets include commercial aviation, Western brand names like American hotel chains, Jewish targets, and U.S. soldiers fighting in Muslim countries. Potential tactics include suicide operations, attacks by gunmen in the model of the 2008 assault on Mumbai, India, and assassinations of key leaders.
The group hopes its findings will encourage the U.S. government to focus more of its limited resources on the most likely attack scenarios. “It’s very hard to get the government to establish priorities,” Hamilton said.
As public attention in recent years has turned to the global economic crisis, the report says, attempted terror attacks have climbed. “The polls say Americans are turning their attention away from the terrorist threat,” Hamilton said. “This report says they better not.”
