AnalysisU.S. military speeds up preparation for attack on Iran's nuclear facilities
The Obama administration’s six-month exploration of ways short of war to persuade Iran to halt its accelerated march to the bomb has, so far, yielded nothing; these efforts, however, have allowed Iran more time and space to build more centrifuges, enrich more uranium, launch a plutonium path to the bomb, and test more sophisticated missiles; the administration can take a hint, and it is now accelerating preparations for a military attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities
Since January, the Obama administration has been exploring ways short of war to persuade Iran to halt its accelerated efforts to build nuclear weapons. These efforts have, so far, yielded nothing. They have, however, allowed Iran more time and space to build more centrifuges, enrich more uranium, launch a plutonium path to the bomb, and test more sophisticated and capable ballistic missiles. Iran today is substantially closer to producing its first nuclear explosive device than it was six months ago (Western intelligence sources have also noticed early preparations for an underground nuclear test, similar to the tests conducted by Pakistan and India in 1998).
The administration can take a hint. Reports from Washington say that the U.S. military is seeking to speed up efforts to deploy a new 14-ton bunker-busting conventional weapon aboard its fleet of B-2 stealth bombers. The Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) could be used to strike at heavily protected Iranian or North Korean nuclear facilities. The U.S. Air Force is seeking to speed up the MOP program, requesting extra funds from Congress to that end.
The Pentagon hopes to have B-2s equipped to carry MOPs as soon as next year. “The Air Force and Department of Defense are looking at the possibility of accelerating the program,” USAF spokesman Andy Bourland said. “There have been discussions with the four congressional committees with oversight responsibilities. No final decision has been made.”
Lewis Page writes that the MOP is a comparatively simple proposal, a massive sharpened steel pencil with a relatively small 2.5 ton explosive charge inside. Dropped from high in the stratosphere, it will strike its target at supersonic speed and punch through many tens of meters of earth or concrete protection before detonating.
Similar weapons — the British “Tallboy” and “Grand Slam” penetrators, designed by British bouncing-bomb specialist Barnes Wallis of Dambusters fame and termed “earthquake bombs” — were used against hardened Nazi targets in the Second World War. An even bigger design, the massive 20-ton American T12, arrived too late to see action. The only significant enhancement claimed by the 14-ton MOP over the 1940s models is precision guidance, which should mean that far fewer bombers will be needed to eliminate a target.
Page says that the likeliest target for MOPs in the immediate future — assuming that a U.S. president chose to resort to military means against a perceived nuclear threat — would probably be the underground centrifuge farm at Natanz in Iran. A successful strike on the deeply buried enrichment bunkers there would be a major blow to the Iranian nuclear effort.
However, Iranian air defenses have been bolstered with Russian missile systems in recent years, and Russia may soon sell Iran even more sophisticated systems. While MOPs could be dropped on Natanz from ordinary American B-52s, mounting such a raid would be difficult and likely to involve a significant aerial precursor campaign against missile sites and the like, with associated additional loss of life on the ground and risk to U.S. aircrews.
“A B-2 stealth raid, however, would be a comparatively surgical and painless affair — thus the desire to fit the new bunker-busting tool to the bat-winged low-observable bomber,” Page concludes.
