THE RUSSIA CONNECTIONRussian Cyberattacks on U.S. Likely to Become Bolder, More Brazen
Repeated failures by Russian cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to inflict lasting damage during the Kremlin’s ongoing war against Ukraine is unlikely to dampen Moscow’s resolve and could instead spur a new wave of riskier efforts against a wider set of targets.
Repeated failures by Russian cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to inflict lasting damage during the Kremlin’s ongoing war against Ukraine is unlikely to dampen Moscow’s resolve and could instead spur a new wave of riskier efforts against a wider set of targets.
The assessment, from a variety of U.S. government agencies, comes as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dragged into a second year, with Ukraine and its Western backers preparing for Moscow to unleash a new round of cyber campaigns aimed at helping to change the trajectory of the battle on the ground.
“The weight of this conflict remains significant,” a spokesperson for U.S. Cyber Command told VOA, sharing information on the condition of anonymity due to the nature of the ongoing fight. “We anticipate their cyber activities may become bolder and look at broader targets.”
Officials at the National Security Agency have reached similar conclusions.
“If the conflict continues to not go well for Russia, there is some chance that Russia will be increasingly brazen in its cyberattacks on civilian infrastructure as we have already seen with their kinetic activity,” an NSA spokesperson told VOA, who like their Cyber Command counterpart spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Only Russia’s cyber wrath will likely not be limited to Ukraine.
“We anticipate that Russian actors will increasingly look outside of Ukraine’s territorial borders when planning and conducting operations, be it related to aid that Western countries are giving to Ukraine or to try to undermine Western unity with disinformation as the conflict drags on,” the NSA spokesperson added.
Russian Cyber Forces Unprepared
Hardening such assessments is the reality that Russia’s hopes that it would be able to quickly topple Kyiv’s government failed to materialize, leaving Russia’s military planners fighting a war for which they were not prepared.
By late last year, Pentagon cyber officials were warning the Kremlin’s inability to anticipate a long war with Ukraine was not a problem relegated to the physical battlefield, but one that extended into both cyberspace and the information environment.
So, when Russia’s first salvo against Ukraine in cyberspace failed to land a decisive blow, the Kremlin’s cyber forces had few answers and continued to underperform.
“Russian cyber activities remained true to their established tradecraft, such as attempts to disrupt websites, extract Ukrainian data and trying to get a forward-facing presence on the internet. These TTP [tactics, techniques and procedures] weren’t a surprise for us at all,” the CYBERCOM spokesperson said.
