US Bolstering Philippines Amid Increasing Assertiveness by China

Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor of politics at Australia’s University of New South Wales School of Humanities and Social Sciences, emailed VOA: “U.S. and Filipino forces in the northern Philippines would be able to monitor and strike Chinese forces in the event a conflict over Taiwan broke out.”

Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province that must one day reunite with mainland China, by force if necessary, while the U.S. has vowed to defend Taiwan’s right to self-rule.

But the U.S. mainland is separated from the Taiwan Strait by about 11,000 kilometers (6,000 nautical miles), while mainland China is roughly 160 kilometers (100 miles) from the democratic island.

‘Positive Impact’ for Taiwan
Although the U.S. has military bases that are closer to Taiwan in Hawaii, about 8,150 kilometers (4,400 nautical miles); Guam, about 2,780 kilometers (1,500 nautical miles); and Okinawa, about 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles), analysts say the closer its military assets are to Taiwan, the faster they can respond and resupply in the event of a Chinese attack.

“While the Philippines may not change the situation in the Taiwan Strait, the greater interest in the Philippines by Washington and Tokyo will have a positive impact on Taiwan’s security,” said Thomas J. Shattuck, the senior program manager at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House, in an email to VOA.

“It will increase U.S. assets in Taiwan’s south,” Shattuck said. “It will make it harder for China to dominate in the ‘southern theater’ of a possible Taiwan conflict. But again, there is more work to be done in this regard.”

Marcos last year said the U.S. military would be allowed to use four new military bases in the Philippines, in addition to five where they are already allowed, for training, building infrastructure and pre-positioning supplies, though the access would not be permanent.

Although many countries in the Indo-Pacific region receive U.S. military assistance, the Philippines receives the most. From 2015 to 2022, Manila received more than $1.14 billion worth of aircraft, armored vehicles, small arms, equipment and training, $475 million of it in aid.

Blinken’s trip to the Philippines marks the second time a senior U.S. Cabinet official has visited the nation this month. On March 11, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced fresh investments from U.S. firms of more than $1 billion in the archipelago nation.

Despite China’s more assertive moves in the South China Sea, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Gregory Poling argues Beijing has lost momentum. Poling, who is senior fellow and director of CSIS’s Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, notes that since 2022, Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines have stopped giving ground to China.

At the same time, he writes in Eurasia Review, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have resumed development of infrastructure and oil and gas fields in the disputed region, despite China’s objections.

China’s provocative moves are one of the main topics expected to be on the agenda in April when President Joe Biden hosts a historic summit with Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

John Xie is senior editor at VOA.Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report. This article is published courtesy of the Voice of America (VOA).