-
If Russia Is Developing Some Kind of Space-Based Weapon, Putin May Never Get to Use It. Here’s Why.
Although it’s unclear exactly what the feared Russian capability is, the country may be too crippled by the war in Ukraine to ever test such a weapon, says an expert who focuses on space diplomacy.
-
-
Germany and Nuclear Weapons: A Difficult History
Donald Trump’s suggestion that, should he become president again, the U.S. will no longer abide by NATO’s principle of collective defense, has sent shockwaves through Europe. German politicians have been discussing whether French and British nuclear weapons would suffice as a protective shield or whether Europe needs new nuclear weapons.
-
-
Cult of the Drone: At the 2-Year Mark, UAVs Have Changed the Face of War in Ukraine – but Not Outcomes
Unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, have been central to the war in Ukraine. Some analysts claim that drones have reshaped war, yielding not just tactical-level effects, but shaping operational and strategic outcomes as well. Mounting evidence, however, suggests that drones have delivered some tactical and operational successes for both Ukraine and Russia. Yet they are strategically ineffective.
-
-
Are Drones Revolutionizing Warfare? They Do Not, Skeptics Argue
Drones have been employed by both sides to the Russia-Ukraine war on unprecedented scale. The prevalence of drones in Ukraine and other recent conflicts has led some observers to conclude that drones are revolutionizing warfare, while other analysts argue that drones are incremental improvements to existing technologies. These drone-skeptics contend that drones are not fundamentally shifting the character of war.
-
-
Trump-Biden Spat on NATO Highlights Divide on America’s Role in the World
Former President Donald Trump doubled down on his threat that, if elected, he would not defend NATO members who don’t meet defense spending targets. Biden, who has made strengthening coalitions against adversaries the central tenet of his foreign policy, advocates for more international cooperation overall. “Trump is breaking Republican orthodoxy entirely, not only with his isolationism, but with his pandering to autocrats,” said Kristine Berzina of the German Marshall Fund research group.
-
-
Trump’s Threats Lead to Reflections in EU Over Nuclear Weapons
Trump’s latest threats that he will take the U.S. out of NATO have gotten EU politicians and military experts talking about a European nuclear deterrence without Washington. Others are warning of a risky, hasty debate, and seek to downplay chances of a major stateside shake-up. Some suggest that France “Europeanize” its nuclear capabilities.
-
-
Attributing Biological Weapons Use
Why is attribution of BW use important? During a biological incident, including BW use, what evidence might provide valuable information to facilitate attribution? What is the state of the science for determining the origin of a biological incident, including BW use? What capabilities does DoD possess or could it develop to facilitate attribution of BW use?
-
-
Gunfire, Screams, Carnage: As Mass Shootings Proliferate, Training Gets More Realistic
First responders and law enforcement agents have for decades used simulations to train for mass casualty events such as shootings or natural disasters, especially after the Columbine school shooting in 1999. But in recent years, as mass shootings have become increasingly common in the United States, the simulations have become more and more realistic. Now, law enforcement and medical workers experience the sights, smells and sounds of gun violence to prepare for tragedy.
-
-
Maritime Power Shapes the World Order – and Is Undergoing a Sea Change
Western global leadership was the result of centuries of sea mastery. Controlling the global ocean enables the projection of military power all over the world, as well as securing the free flow of goods at sea. The prosperity and security of trading nations strongly depend on the stability of the global maritime supply chain and thus on freedom of navigation. But now Western maritime superiority is being challenged by other rising powers and by insurgent groups.
-
-
The Iran Threat Geiger Counter: Reaching Extreme Danger
The Iran Threat Geiger Counter from the Institute for Science and International Security measures on a regular basis Iran’s hostile actions and intentions toward the United States and U.S. allies, and its capability to turn these hostile intentions into action through the potential or actual construction of nuclear weapons. As with the radiation levels measured by a Geiger counter, any level above zero represents a degree of danger. Since May 2023, the date of the last edition of the Counter, the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program has increased dramatically.
-
-
U.S.-North Korea Arms Control Talks or Denuclearization? Analysts Are Divided
As Pyongyang continues to bolster its nuclear and missile programs while refusing to engage with Washington, analysts are divided on whether the U.S. should continue pursuing denuclearization or consider possible arms control options.
-
-
U.S. Raids in Iraq and Syria: How Retaliatory Airstrikes Affect Network of Iran-Backed Militias
Iran’s “forward defense” strategy – focused on addressing threats externally before they become ones within its borders – would suggest that Iran will continue to support proxies through weaponry, funding and tactical knowledge to reduce the influence and legitimacy of the U.S. and its allies in the region. This underscores the delicate balance required in responding to Iranian-backed aggression – aiming to safeguard U.S. interests while preventing an escalation into a wider regional confrontation.
-
-
Mexico’s Lawsuit Against U.S. Gunmakers Has Cleared a Big Hurdle
A federal law protects American gun manufacturers against most lawsuits, but an appeals court has allowed Mexico’s case to move forward. The Mexican government accusing America’s largest gunmakers of aiding and abetting the trafficking of weapons across the border.
-
-
Police Departments Are Turning to AI to Sift Through Millions of Hours of Unreviewed Body-Cam Footage
Body camera video equivalent to 25 million copies of “Barbie” is collected but rarely reviewed. Some cities are looking to new technology to examine this stockpile of footage to identify problematic officers and patterns of behavior.
-
-
Directed Energy: The Focus on Laser Weapons Intensifies
There a growing interest in directed energy weapons, once considered in the realm of science fiction. How to separate the considerable hype about these futuristic-sounding technologies from their more-nuanced impacts on the real-world battlefields of today and tomorrow?
-
More headlines
The long view
Tantalizing Method to Study Cyberdeterrence
Tantalus is unlike most war games because it is experimental instead of experiential — the immersive game differs by overlapping scientific rigor and quantitative assessment methods with the experimental sciences, and experimental war gaming provides insightful data for real-world cyberattacks.
Using Drone Swarms to Fight Forest Fires
Forest fires are becoming increasingly catastrophic across the world, accelerated by climate change. Researchers are using multiple swarms of drones to tackle natural disasters like forest fires.
Testing Cutting-Edge Counter-Drone Technology
Drones have many positive applications, bad actors can use them for nefarious purposes. Two recent field demonstrations brought government, academia, and industry together to evaluate innovative counter-unmanned aircraft systems.
European Arms Imports Nearly Double, U.S. and French Exports Rise, and Russian Exports Fall Sharply
States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France.
How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations
“People talk about climate change as a threat multiplier,” said Karen Sudkamp, an associate director of the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program within the RAND Homeland Security Research Division. “But at what point do we need to start talking about the threat multiplier actually becoming a significant threat all its own?”
The Tech Apocalypse Panic is Driven by AI Boosters, Military Tacticians, and Movies
From popular films like a War Games or The Terminator to a U.S. State Department-commissioned report on the security risk of weaponized AI, there has been a tremendous amount of hand wringing and nervousness about how so-called artificial intelligence might end up destroying the world. There is one easy way to avoid a lot of this and prevent a self-inflicted doomsday: don’t give computers the capability to launch devastating weapons.