• Companies Weigh Fallout from U.S. Ban on Sending Chip Tech to China

    By Rob Garver

    The new U.S. ban the transfer of advanced U.S. semiconductor technology to China affects not only U.S. firms that sell to China, but any company whose products contain American semiconductor technology. Semiconductor companies and other tech firms that count China among their largest single markets are facing potentially severe damage to their revenues.

  • Sixty Years After the Cuban Missile Crisis, Nuclear Threat Feels Chillingly Immediate

    By Alvin Powell

    Graham Allison, author of Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, talks about how Kennedy and Khrushchev stepped back from brink, and says that Western leaders are worried that Putin might not.

  • The Promise and Peril of Guyana’s Oil Boom

    Most people may not have even heard of Guyana, a tiny country on the northeast coast of South America, but the former British colony is in the midst of an oil boom of staggering proportions. The vast oil reserves discovered off the Guyana coast will soon make Guyana a major oil producer. The question is whether Guyana will escape what economists call the “Resource Curse” — the phenomenon which sees economies that are blessed with natural resources experience less favorable development outcomes than their resource-poor counterparts.

  • Who Are Russia’s War Hawks, and Do They Matter?

    By Stephen Sestanovich

    The evolving views of hard-liners within Russia’s paramilitary, media, and national security establishments offer important clues as to the direction Putin will take the war in Ukraine.

  • Retribution and Regime Change

    By Lawrence Freedman

    Everything that now happens in this war, including the murderous missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, has to be understood in terms of the logic of Putin’s exposed position as a failed war leader. What we are witnessing, in other words, are the consequences of Putin’s weakness.

  • “The Most Dangerous Man in the World”: The Life and Times of Vladimir Putin

    By Robert Wihtol

    How did he manage to rise from a communal apartment in suburban Leningrad and a mediocre early career in the KGB to become Russia’s all-powerful president? What has driven this former spy, who was once described as so forgettable that he ‘disappeared into the wallpaper’, to launch a war on Ukraine?

  • Brazil’s Election and South America’s Looming Migration Woes

    By Gil Guerra

    The second round Brazil’s presidential election, to be held 30 October, might plunge the highly polarized country into a political chaos. One side-effect would be the mass migration of Brazilians fleeing instability, exacerbating the hectic state of migration at the U.S. southern border. Brazilian migrants will join the growing number of migrants from Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela in reshaping migration trends.

  • How the Biden Administration Is Responding to Putin’s Threats to Go Nuclear

    By Christoph Bluth

    Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would not necessarily be considered in contravention of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, whereby an attack on one is considered an attack on all and requires collective military defense. But experts say that a case could be made that if radiation from use of a nuclear warhead were to spill over into a NATO country, this could be construed as an attack.

  • OPEC Agrees to Cut Oil Production

    The 23-member alliance has decided to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day. The move could increase crude oil prices and aid Russia, which is grappling with Western attempts to reduce its financing.

  • Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage: How an Attack Could Have Been Carried Out and Why Europe Was Defenseless

    By Christian Bueger

    Whatever caused the damage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, it appears to be the first major attack on critical “subsea” (underwater) infrastructure in Europe. This raises the question of the vulnerabilities of European pipelines, electricity and internet cables, and other maritime infrastructure. Europe will have to revisit its policies for protecting them.

  • Permanent Rupture: The European-Russia Energy Relationship Has Ended with Nord Stream

    Last Monday’s blasts that tore through the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines have already blown up whatever was left of five decades of German energy policy. For Germany, abandoning the Nord Stream pipelines signified a fundamental transformation of Germany’s energy security strategy, and its approach to relations with Russia. “The Nord Stream pipeline was the last gasp of Ostpolitik and this week’s damage is likely fatal.” Emily Holland writes.

  • Russia Annexes Parts of Eastern Ukraine: What We Need to Know

    By Tatsiana Kulakevich

    On Friday, 30 September 2022, Russia has formally annexed four regions in east Ukraine. The people in these four regions are not a single political bloc, even though most of the people in these territories do not want to join Russia.

  • Pipeline Leaks Likely the Result of Deliberate Act

    By Steve Herman

    European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Wednesday that all indications are that leaks from two Nord Stream natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea “are the result of a deliberate act.” The 1,222-kilometer-long Nord Stream 1 pipeline has been, until recently, a major source of gas for Germany. Nord Stream 2, which is 1,234 kilometers in length, has yet to go into commercial operation.

  • Suspicious Leaks in Baltic Sea Nord Stream Pipelines Connecting Russia and Germany

    Both Nord Stream natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany have developed apparent leaks within hours of one another. The cause is unknown, but some sources have hinted at sabotage.

  • No Game Changer: Russian Mobilization May Slow, Not Stop, Ukrainian Offensive

    By Todd Prince

    The Kremlin’s aim to mobilize up to 300,000 men to fight in Ukraine faces significant obstacles and — even if achieved — may not prevent Russia from losing more ground or losing the war, analysts said.