Emerging threatsClimate change poses “strategically significant risk” to U.S. national security

Published 16 September 2016

Twenty-five national security and military leaders the other day released a statement declaring that: “the effects of climate change present a strategically-significant risk to U.S. national security,” and urging a “comprehensive policy” in response. The authors of the statement say that stresses resulting from climate change can increase the likelihood of intra or international conflict, state failure, mass migration, and the creation of additional ungoverned spaces, across a range of strategically-significant regions. They add that the impacts of climate change will place significant strains on international financial stability through contributing to supply line disruptions for major global industries in the manufacturing, energy, agriculture, and water sectors, disrupting the viability of the insurance industry, and generally increasing the political and financial risks of doing business in an increasingly unstable global environment.

The Climate Security Consensus Project, a bipartisan group of twenty-five national security and military leaders, the other day released a statement declaring that: “the effects of climate change present a strategically-significant risk to U.S. national security,” and urging a “comprehensive policy” in response.

This group includes Dr. Geoffrey Kemp, former Special Assistant to President Reagan for National Security Affairs, Dov S. Zakheim, Former Under Secretary of Defense under President George W. Bush, retired Army General Gordon R. Sullivan, former Army Chief of Staff, retired Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, former Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, and retired General Ron Keys, former Commander of Air Combat Command, among many others. From two of the consensus signatories:

“National security leaders always have to account for risk. As long as there is a risk of climate change, we must account for its potential implications for our military capabilities and respond accordingly,” said Zakheim.

“Our military and intelligence leadership have recognized under both the George W Bush and the Obama administrations, that climate change will present real and costly risks to our national security and that the effects are going to get worse if we don’t do something about it very soon. As General Douglas MacArthur warned about the dangers of unpreparedness for war, we don’t want to be too late,” said Kemp.

At the heart of the statement is a concern about risks to regions of the world of strategic significance to the United States — risks that can contribute to political and financial instability on an international scale, as well as maritime insecurity. The Center for Climate & Security notes that two key determinations from the consensus group include:

  • Stresses resulting from climate change can increase the likelihood of intra or international conflict, state failure, mass migration, and the creation of additional ungoverned spaces, across a range of strategically-significant regions, including but not limited to the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, the Indo-Asia-Pacific, and the Arctic regions;
  • The impacts of climate change will place significant strains on international financial stability through contributing to supply line disruptions for major global industries in the manufacturing, energy, agriculture and water sectors, disrupting the viability of the insurance industry, and generally increasing the political and financial risks of doing business in an increasingly unstable global environment.