Vaccination Could Have Prevented at Least 90,000 U.S. Deaths Since June: Kaiser Report

COVID-19 Was the 2nd Leading Cause of Death in the U.S. in September 2021
Looking at the most recent data available on deaths from COVID-19 and other causes, we estimate that COVID-19 was the number 2 leading cause of death in the U.S. in September 2021. Deaths from other causes represent the daily average deaths from January through June of this year. (Average daily deaths from accidents and suicides in this chart are from 2020, as 2021 data are not yet available.)

The number of daily deaths from COVID-19 had decreased remarkably from the once staggering 3,135 deaths per day in January 2021 but started increasing again, in August 2021, with the Delta variant wave. In September 2021, COVID-19 took the lives of 1,899 people per day on average. By comparison, heart disease, which is typically the number one cause of death in the U.S. each year, leads to the death of about 2,000 Americans per day, and cancer claims about 1,600 American lives per day, on average.

As of October 2021, COVID-19 deaths are declining. However, an average of over 1,600 people per day continued to die of COVID-19 in the first week of October 2021, even as safe and effective vaccines have been free and widely available to adults in all states and D.C. since early May 2021. An overwhelming majority of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have been among unvaccinated people, as we discuss below.

The cumulative number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. from the start of the pandemic through October 7, 2021 is 710,659.

COVID-19 Rank Fell to Number 7 Among Leading Causes of Death in July but Is Back Up to Number 2 in September 2021
This chart combines data on COVID-19 mortality rates from KFF’s tracker with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to examine weekly counts of death by jurisdiction and cause of death and monthly provisional counts of deaths by select causes. Deaths from COVID-19 and other causes in this chart are the average daily deaths in each month of 2020 and 2021.

For most of 2020 and in early 2021, COVID-19 was one of the top three leading causes of death in the U.S. As vaccination rates increased, average daily deaths from COVID-19 decreased since the peak in January 2021. However, COVID-19 deaths have been increasing again recently. COVID-19’s rank among leading causes fell to number 8 in July 2021. Then, COVID-19 rose to the number 3 leading cause of death in August 2021, and up to number 2 in September 2021.

COVID-19 was the number 1 leading cause of death for people ages 35-54 years in September 2021

To rank COVID-19 among other leading causes of death by age groups, we looked at COVID-19 deaths for each age group in 2021 and the most recent available data for other rankable age-specific leading causes, including congenital disorders and perinatal conditions that mostly affect children.

COVID-19 was among the top 7 leading causes of death for all age groups in September 2021. COVID-19 killed more people age 25-34, 35-44, and 45-54 in August and in September than it did in any other month prior, despite the widespread availability of vaccines.

In September 2021, COVID-19 ranked as the number 1 leading cause of death above accidents for people age 35-44, number 1 above cancer for people age 45-54, number 2 above suicide for people age 25-34, and number 2 above heart disease for people age 55-64. COVID-19 ranked number 3 among people age 65 and older, above chronic lower respiratory disease for people age 65-74 and 75-84 years, and above Alzheimer disease for people age over 85 years.

Even among children age 1-14, COVID-19 was in the top 10 leading causes of death through August and September 2021. Among children age 5-14, COVID-19 ranked as the number 6 leading cause of death in August and September. Among children ages 1-4, COVID-19’s rank rose from number 13 to number 7 among leading causes of death in August 2021 and held there in September.

Over 90,000 COVID-19 Deaths Since June 2021 Likely Would Have Been Prevented with Vaccinations
COVID-19 vaccines that are free, safe, and highly effective have been widely available to all adults in the U.S. since early May 2021. Older and higher-risk adults in the U.S. had access to these vaccines months earlier. Therefore, by June 2021, adults in the U.S. generally could have been fully vaccinated and protected from most cases of severe illness or death due to COVID-19.

To estimate the number of COVID-19 deaths among adults that could have been prevented with vaccines, we looked at COVID-19 deaths among unvaccinated people in the months after vaccines were widely available (June through September 2021). We summed COVID-19 deaths in each month since June and subtracted COVID-19 deaths among children age 0-17 years. Then, we subtracted COVID-related deaths among vaccinated people with a breakthrough COVID-19 infection from total COVID-19 deaths among adults in each month. Even if all of the unvaccinated people who died of COVID-19 had chosen to get vaccinated, some of those deaths may not have been preventable since vaccines are not a 100% effective. A recent CDC study showed age-standardized vaccine effectiveness against deaths of 91% in the June 20–July 17 period and 94% in the April 4–June 19 period. Based on this study, we assume 91% of COVID-19 deaths among unvaccinated people likely would have been prevented with COVID-19 inoculations.

We find that since June 2021 over 90,000 lives likely would have been saved with vaccinations. Most of these preventable deaths occurred in the last month, well after vaccines became available. In September 2021 alone, approximately 49,000 deaths likely would have been averted if they had chosen to get vaccinated against COVID-19.

The overwhelming majority of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths continue to be preventable.