Why Putin’s War with Ukraine Is a Miscalculation

How Noteworthy Is China’s Muted Response?
How China navigates this crisis will also shape the geopolitical effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. China did not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and it has responded ambiguously to this attack. However, Beijing and Moscow have built a tight partnership of late that encompasses economic, political, and strategic cooperation. Russia’s commercial links to China will help the Russian economy weather international sanctions.

It is conceivable that the Russian invasion will produce Cold War 2.0, not just with Russia but with a China-Russia bloc. It is also conceivable, although less so, that Beijing will distance itself from Moscow to avert that outcome and dampen the economic and geopolitical impact of Russia’s military adventurism. China’s rise, after all, has rested on global economic interdependence and geopolitical stability in Eurasia; Beijing might view Putin’s latest moves as too provocative and disruptive for its taste. The United States and its allies should take advantage of Russian recklessness to try to put some distance between China and Russia.

What Can Ukraine Do?
The most potent obstacle to Putin’s neo-imperial adventurism is the Ukrainian people. The Maidan revolution and Russia’s subsequent aggression against Ukraine in 2014 helped nurture a strong sense of solidarity among Ukrainians and deepened their determination to build a successful democracy integrated into Europe. Putin’s invasion will only further unify the Ukrainian people and intensify their determination to permanently leave Russia’s coercive sphere of influence. Accordingly, it is difficult to discern Putin’s endgame. Does he really believe that he can install a regime that enjoys legitimacy and the support of Ukrainian citizens? Is he prepared to occupy a country of forty-four million people and use coercion and intimidation to suppress grassroots resistance?

Ukraine will not be able to defeat the Russian military. But there is a good chance that Ukrainians will ultimately be able to defeat Russia’s efforts to rule over their country. Nations around the world should stand by the Ukrainian people and provide the political and material support, including arms, that they need to resist Russian aggression.

Putin might be reasserting control over Ukraine in a physical sense, but not in a political and moral sense. When Russians ultimately ask, “Who lost Ukraine?,” the answer will be Putin. By invading Ukraine, Putin might well be overreaching and unwittingly sowing the seeds of the demise of his regime.

What’s an Effective Containment Strategy?
Overall, the West’s best containment strategy is to maintain solidarity. Putin likely acted when he did because he thought he could exploit divisions among Western democracies. The United States is coping with polarization, Britain has left the EU, Germany has a new and untested chancellor, and illiberal populism has reared its head on both sides of the Atlantic—Putin likely thought he could take advantage of these conditions to crack the West.

But he miscalculated. Transatlantic partners have stood shoulder to shoulder in recent months, and that unity will only grow stronger now that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has begun. Like-minded countries around the world, democracies and nondemocracies both, should link arms in the face of Russian aggression. The stakes go well beyond the borders of Ukraine.

Charles A. Kupchan is Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. This article is published courtesy of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).