Israel-Iran Stealthy War Intensifies

Azerbaijan has also allowed Israel to operate military and intelligence bases on its border with Iran – and many of the Israeli operatives (many of them are not Israeli – but they are run by Israel) infiltrated into Iran to collect information, blow up buildings, or kill Iranian scientists and military leaders, are infiltrated into Iran across the Azeri border.

Azerbaijan is also a big customer for Israeli arms, a point which has placed Israeli in a difficult position. There is an affinity between Jews and Armenians because both peoples were the target of genocidal policies. And yet, in the recent war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Armenian territory of Nagorno Karabakh (2 September 2020 – 10 November 2020), Israel supported Azerbaijan, and Israel-produced and supplied arms, especially advanced drones, allowed Azerbaijan to achieve a quick and decisive victory.

The Armenian diaspora was upset with Israel’s stance, and the son of the late French chanteur, Charles Aznavour, who was a leading voice for the Armenian people and culture, flew to Israel to plead with the country’s leadership to moderate its support for Azerbaijan, but to no avail.

In the cyber domain, the stealthy war between Israel and Iran is escalating. In 2010, Israel was able to damage about a third of Iran’s uranium enrichment centrifuges by managing to install the destructive Stuxnet malware in the centrifuge farm’s command-and-control system.

Since then, Iran has bolstered both its cyber defenses and its offensive cyber capabilities. The most daring Iranian attack took place in April 2020, when Iranian government hackers attacked Israel’s water management system. The damage done was small, but Israeli security services were alarmed by Iran’s reach – and the possibility that a future attack would see Israel’s fresh water supplies poisoned.

In retaliation, a week later Israel attacked Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, paralyzing it for a day. Israel also disabled Iran’s petrol stations, causing major traffic disruptions.

Only last Monday, Iranian government hackers brought down several Israel government websites.

Iran and the world powers will soon sign a new nuclear deal. It will be modeled after the 2015 nuclear deal, but with a major difference.

In May 2018, the Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 deal without replacing it with anything. The “maximum pressure” sanctions imposed by the administration on Iran were not effective, and Iran used the U.S. withdrawal to curb the international inspection of its nuclear activities, build thousands of advanced centrifuges, and enrich uranium to 60%.

In June 2015, when the nuclear deal was signed, Iran was about three month away from the bomb. The 2015 agreement rolled back Iran’s nuclear weapons activities, pushing the “breakout” time, that is, the time it would take Iran to assemble a nuclear device if it decided to do so, from three months to about 12-14 months.

The U.S. 2018 withdrawal from the deal allowed Iran to accelerate its march to the bomb, and military experts – including Gen. Benny Gantz, Israel’s defense minister – say Iran is now only 2-3 weeks away from putting together a nuclear device, if the country’s leadership decided to do so.

The knowledge and experience Iran accumulated since the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018 cannot be unlearnt, so any nuclear deal reached with Iran will be less comprehensive and less effective than the deal fashioned in 2015.

With this reality in mind, military and intelligence analysts say that Israel has already reached a tacit understanding with the United States and Russia that its campaign inside Iran against that country nuclear activities will be continued, and intensified, after the new deal is signed.