WAR IN UKRAINECan the Russian Military Overcome Its Manpower Problems in Ukraine?
A new phase of the Ukraine war is shaping up in the eastern part of the country, but succeeding with its new war goals will be no simple task for a Russian military that has lost some 15,000 personnel since its February 24 invasion.
A new phase of the Ukraine war is shaping up in the eastern part of the country, where Russian troops are aiming to overcome early setbacks and pummel Ukrainian forces in a long-distance ground battle.
But succeeding with its new war goals will be no simple task for a Russian military that has lost some 15,000 personnel since its February 24 invasion, according to an estimate British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace gave on April 25.
While far larger than the Ukrainians, the Russian forces are seen by Western and Ukrainian officials as demoralized and increasingly depleted following Moscow’s failed attempt at a quick victory after it invaded. In addition to mounting casualty figures, Russia has already deployed large parts of its military arsenal, including some of its most modern equipment, and has fired vast amounts of its rockets, artillery shells, and missiles.
As Western countries continue to gain momentum sending more and better equipment to Ukraine, questions about the depth of Russia’s military stockpiles as well as the preparedness and skills of its soldiers hang over the Kremlin’s war effort as the conflict enters its ninth week.
To find out more about the battles ahead, RFE/RL spoke with Margarita Konaev, a fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
RFE/RL: Russian officials have stated that one of the goals of the second phase of the war is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine as well as to create a land corridor that connects Crimea all the way over to Transdniester, the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova. How do you interpret that and how realistic a goal does this seem for the Russian military at this point?
Margarita Konaev: Everyone following the war has observed that the Russian military’s goals have had to be adjusted given the realities on the ground and, to an extent, these most recent statements reflect some of those realities that we’re seeing in the Donbas right now. [They] already control a lot of the territory [in the south]. So restating those goals gives them more attainable possibilities of what they can achieve in the foreseeable future.
