Africa’s Faltering Counterterrorism Strategy | China’s Mistakes & America’s Gains | Afghanistan Lessons & Ukraine, and more

To be sure, polling in Europe after the Feb. 24 invasion shows significant drops in approval for Russia and Putin among right-wing populist parties, especially in Italy. But, as a recent Pew survey noted, these right-wing parties still remain far more positive toward the Russian regime than the rest of the public in their societies. Such sentiments underlay a controversial planned “fact-finding” trip by politicians in Germany’s far-right AfD party to Russian-controlled areas in Ukraine, which was called off last week only after a massive backlash at the possibility of elected German officials directly boosting Putin’s propaganda machine.

Pew also found that U.S. Republicans are more likely to believe their government is giving too much to Ukraine than too little. Distaste for the costs of the war are influencing the upcoming midterm elections, while a segment of the Republican base — championed by former president Donald Trump and cultivated by notoriously Putin-friendly Fox News host Tucker Carlson — has long harbored sympathy for Putin’s Russia.

China’s Mistakes Can Be America’s Gain  (Michael Schuman, The Atlantic)
The United States does not need to take Xi Jinping’s attempt to project power at face value.

What Can Russia’s Failure in Afghanistan Teach Us About Its War in Ukraine?  (Gil Barndollar, The Critic)
The echoes should be ominous for the Kremlin.

Japan Bans Export of Chemical Weapons Goods to Russia  (AP)
Japan has announced a ban on exports of chemical weapons-related goods to Russia, following a decision by Group of Seven foreign ministers last week. The decision came as Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno expressed grave concern over Russia’s possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. “As the world’s only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, we strongly demand that the threat or use of nuclear weapons by Russia should never happen,” Matsuno told a regular news conference.

The Imminent Election Crisis in Brazil  (Brian Winter, American Quarterly)
Still trailing in polls, Bolsonaro seems determined to stay in power. There are several potential scenarios for the confrontation ahead.

G5 Sahel Seeks ‘New Strategy’ After Mali Withdrawal  (AfricaNews with AFP)
The defense ministers and chiefs of staff of the G5 Sahel countries held an extraordinary meeting in Niamey on Thursday to consider a “new strategy” for the anti-jihadist force after Mali withdrew in May, AFP learnt Friday. The one-day meeting aimed to “discuss the new configuration” of the joint force after “the withdrawal from Mali” and the “departure of Barkhane” from that country, according to the final communiqué. “This situation requires us to adopt new strategies to fight effectively against armed terrorist groups in the common space,” the text said. The G5 Sahel is a joint military force that until May included Niger, Burkina, Mauritania, Chad and Mali. Largely financed by the European Union, this force represented in the eyes of the Sahel’s international partners a way out in a region plagued by jihadist violence 

Putin’s Nuclear Threats Are Reaching Beyond Ukraine  (Lasha Tchantouridze, National Interest)
As Russian troops suffer setbacks on the battlefields of Ukraine, the Kremlin is more likely to use extraordinary measures to stop the deterioration of the Russian military.