Will China Try to Take Taiwan in Xi’s Third Term?

From 2008-16 when Taiwan’s former ruling party the Kuomintang (KMT) was in power, relations between Beijing and Taipei reached their best level since the end of the civil war in 1949, but they quickly deteriorated to the worst in decades after President Tsai Ing-wen from Taiwan’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power in 2016 and U.S. President Donald Trump took office a year later.

Tsai refused to accept a compromise agreement previously accepted by both sides, which allowed them to put aside the touchy issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty and reduce tensions. Under the agreement, called the ‘92 Consensus, both sides agreed there is only one China, with the KMT interpreting that to mean each side can define what that China is — the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) or the People’s Republic of China.

Tsai and her party have argued that the agreement was not written down, and Beijing has never accepted the KMT’s interpretation. But China’s leaders also have never publicly rejected it, leaving room for the two sides to work together.

At the heart of the matter is that the DPP and its supporters don’t want Taiwan and the mainland to be part of one China, regardless of how it’s defined. They prefer to work toward achieving international treatment and inclusion of Taiwan just like other countries get, even if it’s not officially recognized as one.

Analysts say even though Beijing doesn’t want to go to war to reunify the two sides, it may feel forced to do so if the current trend of U.S.-Taiwan relations continues.

Under former President Donald Trump and now President Biden, the U.S. has sold more weapons to Taiwan in six years than former President Barack Obama did in his eight years in office.

There have also been numerous visits from high-level U.S. officials to Taiwan, including by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August. And U.S. lawmakers from both parties are on the verge of passing yet another pro-Taiwan act.

The Taiwan Policy Act, while considered necessary by U.S. lawmakers seeking to support Taiwan, is alarming to Beijing. According to the Senate’s website, it aims to bolster Taiwan’s defense capabilities, providing almost $4.5 billion in security assistance to Taiwan, and designates Taipei as a “Major Non-NATO Ally.” It also obligates U.S. administrations to promote Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, and to set up a sanctions regime to “deter further PRC aggression against Taiwan.”

Victor Gao, a Beijing-based scholar who understands the Chinese leadership’s mindset, says Xi has no timeline, prefers peaceful unification and can “wait a millennium” for it to happen, but actions such as passage of the Taiwan Policy Act, will break Sino-U.S. agreements and cross Beijing’s red line, leaving China no choice but to break off diplomatic ties with the U.S. and/or take Taiwan by force to protect its sovereignty.

“The ball right now is in Washington, D.C.’s court. If Washington doesn’t promote the independence of Taiwan and if Tsai Ing-wen doesn’t push for independence, the status quo can last a millennium. There’s no rush. Why rush?” said Gao, vice president of the research group Center for China and Globalization.

But he says if the U.S. takes actions that violate the “One China” policy and Sino-U.S. agreements, it will trigger a war that will devastate both sides.

“Some 1,500 kilometers of coastal area in China is fully covered with missiles. If the U.S.(in coming to Taiwan’s defense) bombs Chinese coastal cities and Beijing, do you think anywhere in the U.S., such as New York and Washington, D.C., will be safe?” Gao asked.

He warned when Xi said China will take “all measures necessary,” it means it could use nuclear weapons.

“In a nuclear age, if one country tries to attack another, there will be mutually assured destruction, that country will be destroyed at the same time,” Gao said, adding that all sides should therefore “promote peace in cross-strait relations, not war.”

Cindy Sui is a journalist based in Hong Kong.This article is published courtesy of the Voice of America (VOA).