CLIMATE & MIGRATION4 Key Facts About Climate Change and Human Migration
How does climate change affect human migration and what does it mean for border policies? Learn about the complex relationship between weather and cross-border migration across different demographic groups, and the role for future policies.
Climate change is making some regions less habitable for humans, whether by raising sea levels, hurting crop yields, or intensifying droughts, storms, and wildfires. Yet, if you ask people why they’re moving, few say it’s for climate reasons, said Hélène Benveniste, an assistant professor of environmental social sciences at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.
Climate change tends to affect migration patterns in subtle ways, Benveniste explained. In her research, she uses statistical and modeling methods to find the climate signal among the numerous other pressures influencing migration.
“Basically, climate change influences pre-existing migration flows,” she said. There isn’t a single effect. Rather, she said, “climate change is both increasing the number of people who are forced to move and increasing the number of people who are forced to stay.”
Here are four essential facts about climate and human migration based on Benveniste’s research.
Middle-income groups are the most likely to migrate in response to climate risks.
Researchers over the past decade have found that groups with incomes near the average for their region are the most likely to migrate in response to rising seas, extreme droughts and storms, and other climate-related impacts. These middle-income groups have just enough resources to find less risky places to live.
Those with the highest and lowest incomes are less likely to migrate in response to climate impacts. The poorest people typically don’t have the means to move, while the wealthiest often have the resources to adapt without moving. Benveniste noted how during the Los Angeles fires in January 2025, some of the wealthiest homeowners were able to save their homes by hiring private firefighting crews, while others watched theirs burn.
As climate change increases the number of people who want to migrate but can’t, it leaves some communities exposed to greater risks.
Climate migration has two dimensions: the aspiration to move, and the ability to move. Although more research is needed to quantify global trends, Benveniste said climate change appears to be increasing the number of people who want to move but can’t, a state called involuntary immobility.
