WORLD ROUNDUPOne Question Looming Over the Gaza Deal: Why Now? | How to Design Nuclear Sanctions That Don’t| China Tries Shock-and-Awe on Donald Trump, and more

Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize Obsession Isn’t Over  (James Crabtree, Foreign Policy)
His vanity is reshaping geopolitics and opens a way to game U.S. policy.

How to Design Nuclear Sanctions That Don’t Backfire  (Sergey Shkolnikov, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
On May 2, 2011, a US Navy SEAL helicopter soft-crashed into the side of Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Within the hour, bin Laden was identified and assassinated. The world’s most wanted terrorist had lived in Pakistan for years, less than a mile from Pakistan’s top military academy. Despite harboring the architect of the 9/11 attacks on the United States, Pakistan faced no invasion, regime change, or “shock and awe” campaign. But the United States invaded Afghanistan within weeks of 9/11/2001, accusing its leaders of supporting terrorism, and invaded Iraq in 2003 on even less substantial grounds.
Beyond a broader US belief in the strategic value of Pakistan, there was a critical factor in the US mission to kill bin Laden: Pakistan had nuclear weapons. It is an unfortunate truth that nuclear weapons deter invasion, transforming outcast states into all-but unassailable ones. As the American government engaged in regime change across the Middle East, Pakistan’s government remained untouched.
It is also unfortunate that the international community’s main mechanism for pressuring countries with nuclear weapons and attempting to prevent nuclear proliferation—comprehensive sanctions—often further accelerates the very programs it aims to destroy or influence. This “sanctions paradox,” as the American political scientist Daniel Drezner calls it, is among the most dangerous in geopolitics: When Western governments enact sanctions to push states like North Korea and Iran away from nuclear development, they can inadvertently drive those states toward the bomb at increasing speeds. Economic isolation creates conditions that are conducive to nuclear weapons development.

The Twilight of Socialism in Bolivia  (Daniel Runde, National Interest)
Here’s how the United States can help cement Bolivian democracy and capitalism.

China Tries Shock-and-Awe on Donald Trump  (Economist)
Xi Jinping’s bet that dramatic escalation is the way to win a trade war.

Cars to Fighter Jets: China’s New Export Curbs May Level a Heavy Blow Worldwide  (Keith Bradsher, New York Times)
Broad restrictions could cause supply interruptions for arms makers, as well as manufacturers in the semiconductor, automotive and other sectors.