WORLD ROUNDUPThe Peace in Gaza Won’t Last | The Next Wave of Nuclear Proliferation? | How Storms Are Shaping Politics in Southeast Asia, and more

The Peace in Gaza Won’t Last  (Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Policy)
Only the end of Israel’s special relationship with the United States would signal a true end of war.

“Israel Needs to Deliver”: Europe’s Private Fears Over Trump’s Plan for Gaza  (Tim Ross, Esther Webber, Sarah Wheaton and Clea Caulcutt, Politico

Officials and diplomats are hoping the ceasefire lasts but don’t want to ease the pressure on Israel just yet.

President Ties Economic Support for Argentina to Coming Elections  (Doug Mills, New York Times)
Days after moving ahead with a $20 billion bailout of Argentina, President Trump explicitly tied economic support for the country to the political fortunes of its president, Javier Milei. “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Mr. Trump said.

China Is Going After American Firms to Hit Back at Donald Trump  (Economist)
Its investigation of Qualcomm may be the latest example.

What Donald Trump Gets Right in the Middle East  (Economist)
What Trump gets right in the Middle East is that he seems to understand the limits of American power there. That may sound paradoxical. The president likes superlatives. He talks about America as if it were a world-bestriding colossus. In the Middle East, however, he does not act that way. He is willing to tolerate uncertain outcomes in a way that few other American policymakers would be.
His second term seems to have brought a more hard-headed view of what America can and cannot do in the Middle East. He also has the braggadocio to sell it. No other president would portray a half-baked ceasefire as peace in our time.
Historians may judge it was not, but a tolerance for messiness could prove to be the strength of Trump’s Middle East policy—or its weakness.

How Storms Are Shaping Politics in Southeast Asia  (Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy)
Governments are struggling to forecast and manage bad weather.

The Next Wave of Nuclear Proliferation?  (Andreas Umland, National Interest)
For smaller powers, the Russia-Ukraine War’s lesson may be that their security will depend on nuclear deterrence.