WORLD ROUNDUPHow the U.S. Failure in Iraq Haunts Trump’s Gaza Plan | America Doubles Down on Javier Milei | It’s Time to Stop New START, and more

Will Trump’s $20 Billion Backing Help Milei Change Argentina’s Fortunes?  (Brad W. Setser, CFR)
Argentina has already gone through more than $50 billion in IMF funds. Despite the assurances of U.S. officials, there is skepticism that Argentina can achieve a different result with this currency swap.

America Doubles Down on Javier Milei  (Economist)
The Trump administration is raising the stakes in its unprecedented bet on President Javier Milei of Argentina. These extraordinary actions have bolstered Argentine bonds and propped up its currency, which has been under heavy pressure (see chart). But the broader aim is, unashamedly, to help Mr Milei win the midterm election on October 26th. The United States is apparently making the measures conditional on his success. In a meeting in the White House with Mr Milei on October 14th, Donald Trump said that “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone.” Argentine stocks and bonds immediately plunged.

How the U.S. Failure in Iraq Haunts Trump’s Gaza Plan  (Marc Lynch, Foreign Policy)
The American-led trusteeship will command no legitimacy among Palestinians.

It’s Time to Stop New START  (Matthew Kroenig, Foreign Policy)
Putin’s proposed arms control extension is good for Russia and China, but bad for America.

Why Countries Struggle to Quit Fossil Fuels, Despite Higher Costs and 30 Years of Climate Talks and Treaties  (Kate Hua-Ke Chi, The Conversation)
Fossil fuels still power much of the world, even though renewable energy has become cheaper in most places and avoids both pollution and the climate damage caused by burning coal, oil and natural gas.
To understand this paradox, it helps to look at how countries – particularly major greenhouse gas emitters, including the U.S., China and European nations – are balancing the pressures of rising electricity demand with the global need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet.

Russia’s “Permanent test” Is Pushing Europe to the Brink of War – Here’s What Moscow Actually Wants  (Christo Atanasov Kostov, The Conversation)
The scenes have become grimly familiar: Russian tanks rolling into Georgia in 2008, the seizure of Crimea in 2014, the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian military jets violating European airspace, and now mysterious drone sightings closing airports across Europe.
While these may seem like disconnected events, in reality they are but chapters in a singular, focused and evolving strategy. Russia’s aim is to wield military power when necessary, engage in “grey-zone” war tactics when possible, and exert political pressure everywhere. Moscow has been doing all this for decades, with one objective in mind: to redraw Europe’s security map without triggering direct war with Nato.
This goal is neither improvised nor ambiguous, and at its core, it is irredentist – it seeks to reverse Nato’s post-Cold War expansion, and reassert a Russian sphere of influence in Europe.

Poison Cigars, Propaganda and Coups Litter C.I.A. History in Latin America  (Alan Yuhas, New York Times)
For much of the 20th century, the C.I.A. devised plots to overthrow governments, kill high-profile leaders or arm dissident groups.