NUCLEAR ESCALATION RISKSStudying War in the New Nuclear Age
Nuclear security can be a daunting topic: The consequences seem unimaginable, but the threat is real. MIT political scientist Caitlin Talmadge scrutinizes military postures and international dynamics to understand the risks of escalation.
Nuclear security can be a daunting topic: The consequences seem unimaginable, but the threat is real. Some scholars, though, thrive on the close study of the world’s most dangerous weapons. That includes Caitlin Talmadge PhD ’11, an MIT faculty member who is part of the Institute’s standout group of nuclear security specialists.
Talmadge, who joined the MIT faculty in 2023, has become a prominent scholar in security studies, conducting meticulous research about militaries’ on-the-ground capabilities and how they are influenced by political circumstances.
Earlier in her career, Talmadge studied the military capabilities of armies run by dictatorships. For much of the last decade, though, she has focused on specific issues of nuclear security: When can conventional wars raise risks of nuclear use? In what circumstances will countries ratchet up nuclear threats?
“A scenario that’s interested me a lot is one where the conduct of a conventional war actually raises specific nuclear escalation risks,” Talmadge says, noting that military operations may put pressure on an adversary’s nuclear capabilities. “There are many other instabilities in the world. But I’ve gotten pretty interested in what it means that the U.S., unlike in the Cold War when there was more of a bipolar competition, now faces multiple nuclear-armed adversaries.”
MIT is a natural intellectual home for Talmadge, who is the Raphael Dorman and Helen Starbuck Associate Professor in MIT’s Department of Political Science. She is also part of MIT’s Security Studies Program, long the home of several of the Institute’s nuclear experts, and a core member of the recently launched MIT Center for Nuclear Security Policy, which supports scholarship as well as engagement with nuclear security officials.
“I think dialogue for practitioners and scholars is important for both sides,” says Talmadge, who served on the Defense Policy Board, a panel of outside experts that directly advises senior Pentagon leaders, during the Biden administration. “It’s important for me to do scholarship that speaks to real-world problems. And part of what we do at MIT is train future practitioners. We also sometimes brief current practitioners, meet with them, and get a perspective on the very difficult problems they encounter. That interaction is mutually beneficial.”
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From a young age, Talmadge was interested in global events, especially military operations, while growing up in a family that supported her curiosity about the world.
