TERRORISMIs West Africa the New Epicenter of Global Terrorism? Experts Talk Implications of Potential Mali Takeover.

By Tanner Stening

A group of Al Qaeda-linked militants are reportedly on the cusp of seizing control of the West African nation of Mali in what many fear could lead to a complete takeover of a national government by a designated terrorist organization.

The Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate, has in recent days intensified a campaign in Mali’s capital city Bamako by blocking major fuel supply routes and attacking army convoys. 

The events signal the volatility of the Sahel region, which stands at a dangerous crossroads: weak or ineffective states, youth unemployment and political instability have created fertile ground for jihadist groups — turning West Africa into the epicenter of a resurgent, globally connected jihadist threat, Northeastern University experts say. 

“As the United States is wont to do, we took our eye off the ball — and it’s coming back to haunt us,” says William Miles, a political science professor at Northeastern, who has traveled extensively across West Africa. 

Exactly what that threat might look like beyond the continent remains unclear. But experts have pointed to a recent uptick in terrorism worldwide as a warning that instability in the Sahel could have global consequences.

The number of countries with at least one documented terrorist incident rose from 58 to 66 in 2024, indicating the highest jump since 2018, according to the Global Terrorism Index. In 2024, global progress reversed for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries facing increased terrorist activity and only 34 having shown improvement, according to the index.

Experts warn of growing Islamic State-linked activity in the Sahel region, specifically in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, and an uptick of operations in Syria and Iraq, where IS once held large swaths of territory — though the group has not yet regained the extensive territorial control it once held.

After a U.S.-led campaign successfully ousted Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in 2011, weakening Al Qaeda in the region, it appeared that the global jihadist movement had been contained, Miles says. But the thinking among some in American defense circles was that extremist networks would seek new footholds elsewhere — specifically in regions with large Muslim populations, weakened or little government control and open, or “unpoliced,” borders, Miles explains.