THE AMERICASDon’t Repeat Libya: The Dangers of US Intervention in Venezuela
Calls for US military action against the cartels have evolved in some circles into a push for regime change in Venezuela, and the US has assembled the force to do it. If Trump pulls the trigger on a “Libya model” intervention, it would risk repeating a disastrous foreign policy mistake that resulted in civil war, a refugee crisis, and regional instability.
The Trump Administration announced last week that the USS Gerald Ford and her Carrier Strike Group, consisting of three Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers, would be redirected from the Mediterranean Sea to the US Southern Command. They will join a sizeable naval contingent already in the Caribbean that has conducted a growing number of strikes against suspected drug boats in an effort to “degrade and dismantle” cartels that the administration designated as foreign terrorist organizations earlier this year.
The introduction of a Carrier Strike Group brings with it questions about the intent of the operations in the Caribbean, particularly as tensions with President Nicolás Maduro rise and the Trump administration publicly flirts with the idea of striking targets inside Venezuela. The Miami Herald has reported that strikes inside the Latin American country could come “in a matter of days or even hours.”
The size and composition of the force assembled are not optimized for traditional counter-narcotics operations but rather for a sustained air and naval campaign. In fact, the number of naval assets in the Caribbean now exceeds those that were assembled off the coast of Libya in 2011 for Operation Odyssey Dawn, an aggressive bombardment campaign that ultimately led to the collapse of the Gaddafi regime.
Calls for US military action against the cartels have evolved in some circles into a push for regime change in Venezuela, and the US has assembled the force to do it. If Trump pulls the trigger on a “Libya model” intervention, it would risk repeating a disastrous foreign policy mistake that resulted in civil war, a refugee crisis, and regional instability.
The Libya Model and Its Lessons
In March 2011, the United States and its NATO allies launched airstrikes in Libya under the banner of humanitarian intervention with the backing of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973. The stated mission was to prevent mass atrocities by Muammar Gaddafi’s forces. Within months, however, the campaign morphed into an operation aimed at toppling the regime.
The naval buildup in the Caribbean is reminiscent of the one in the Mediterranean in the days leading up to Operation Odyssey Dawn. In fact, with the addition of a Carrier Strike Group and access to bases in the continental US, it is exceptionally more capable.
