TERRORISMAfghan Terrorism Is a Small Threat in the United States
It is still not clear whether Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who murdered a West Virginia National Guard member in Washington, D.C., two weeks ago, was a terrorist – but assuming he is a terrorist, it would mean that since 1975, Lakanwal is the only Afghan terrorist to have murdered somebody on U.S. soil in an attack. In other words, the annual chance of being murdered in an Afghan terrorist attack on U.S. soil is about 1 in 14.2 billion per year. The annual chance of being murdered in a normal homicide is about 1 in 14,000 per year, approximately one million times greater.
Very little new information has been released since Rahmanullah Lakanwal murdered West Virginia National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom in Washington, DC, two weeks ago. He also shot and injured Andrew Wolfe, another National Guardsman, in the same attack. Prosecutors have since charged Lakanwal with murder, assault with intent to kill while armed, and possession of a firearm during a violent crime. Terrorism charges are absent because prosecutors do not yet know his motives. The FBI is conducting a terrorism investigation to discover those.
It’s unusual that we still don’t know whether his motive was terrorism. Terrorists usually announce their motives. Still, his target, background, and some of his actions during the attack suggest he was a terrorist who will soon be charged with a terrorism offense.
If Lakanwal is a terrorist, his murder of Beckstrom will mark him as the deadliest-ever Afghan-born terrorist on US soil. Terrorism is the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through coercion, fear, or intimidation. Lakanwal’s attack was certainly illegal force conducted by a nonstate actor, since he left his Afghan Zero Unit after the Taliban takeover. But his motivation is unclear.
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said Lakanwal has been “radicalized since he’s been here in this country,” which signals she believes he is a terrorist. According to the affidavit, he also yelled “Allahu akbar” during the attack, which is notable evidence of a terrorist motive. He also drove across the United States from his home in Washington state, parked near the White House, and then attacked soldiers. There’s also evidence that Lakanwal was depressed, stopped attending mosque, struggled with war trauma, and became increasingly withdrawn. Still, prosecutors have not filed terrorism charges.
We should have heard something about Lakanwal’s motives by now, even if it’s just through leaks. Either the FBI and Department of Justice have prevented leaks, or there just isn’t enough evidence for a terrorism charge yet. Prosecutors will charge him with terrorism if there is any evidence to support it.
If Lakanwal is ultimately charged with terrorism, that would clarify the scale of the Afghan-origin terrorist threat. For clarity, the remainder of this post assumes he is a terrorist.
