WORLD ROUNDUPTaiwan’s Drone Program Is Far Too Small | Indonesia’s Sea Lanes Give It Overlooked Leverage Over China | European Populists Broke with Trump on Greenland as National Goals Diverged, and more

Trump Returns to a Familiar Role: Sowing Trade Chaos  (Ana Swanson, New York Times)
The president’s quick reversal on tariffs over Greenland was another sign of his willingness to rip up the international order — even parts of it that he himself has made.

An Unhinged President on the Magic Mountain  (Bret Stephens, New York Times)
Donald Trump’s hourlong speech to a packed audience on Wednesday sounded, in places, as if it had been ghostwritten by Mario Puzo. Wrapped in self-aggrandizing boasts and exaggerations, along with ugly jibes, meandering asides and shopworn grievances, lay a premeditated threat worthy of a padrino: “You can say ‘yes’ and we will be very appreciative,” the president said, in reference to his demand for Greenland. “Or you can say ‘no’ and we will remember.”
Where Europe had once faced a single menace, it now faces a double one — a Scylla of unyielding Russian brutality and a Charybdis of American abandonment and territorial avarice.
That can only help Vladimir Putin, since a crackup of the Atlantic alliance has been a core goal of Russian foreign policy since the 1940s — infinitely more valuable than whatever advantages Moscow may hope to find in the Arctic. It can also only help China, because a Europe that feels abandoned by the United States will almost inevitably lean more heavily on Beijing as an alternative economic partner. Not surprisingly, the Chinese vice premier He Lifeng was in Davos, offering “win-win cooperation.”

What Dependence on China Brings: Britain Approves an Enormous London Embassy  (Jake Thrupp, The Strategist)
In approving construction of an enormous Chinese embassy in London, Britain is trading long-term security resilience for short-term economic advantage.

Taiwan’s Drone Program Is Far Too Small  (Erin Hale, The Strategist)
While Taiwan’s drone manufacturing program looks ambitious, it is nowhere near ambitious enough, as combat experience in Ukraine is making clear.
With the US-identified window when China will be capable of invading Taiwan just a year away, Taipei is not making drones fast enough nor planning to do so. Its drone makers also lack extensive access to battle experience.

Indonesia’s Sea Lanes Give It Overlooked Leverage Over China  (Alfin Febrian Basundoro and Trystanto Sanjaya, The Strategist)
The power dynamic between Indonesia and China is more complex than the one-way economic dependence that some experts assume, since China depends on Indonesian waters for ships carrying its exports and imports between the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
If the United States blockaded China in response to an invasion of Taiwan, for example, continued access through the Malacca Strait and Indonesia’s archipelagic waters would be vital to the Chinese economy. To maintain this access, Beijing must preserve Jakarta’s goodwill.

European Populists Broke with Trump on Greenland as National Goals Diverged  (Aaron Wiener, Washington Post)
The split between ideological allies showed the limits of the U.S. president’s with-me-or-against-me politics, and a key obstacle to cooperation among nationalist parties.