NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROLNew START to Expire: Nuclear Arms Control Goes Up in Smoke
On 5 February 2026, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) will expire. This is the last remaining major treaty between the United States (US) and Russia limiting their deployed strategic nuclear warheads.
On 5 February 2026, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) will expire. This is the last remaining major treaty between the United States (US) and Russia limiting their deployed strategic nuclear warheads. It would be for the first time in over half a century that both these major nuclear powers will have no formal, legally binding constraints on their nuclear arsenals.
Would this be the death knell of nuclear arms control efforts, or could these major nuclear powers reshape the global efforts by finding an alternative to such a treaty mechanism? There are both views and counterviews on this subject, shaped by differing strategic and institutional perspectives. Whether it is seen as a setback or an opportunity depends on the context and interests of the agencies and states judging it.
The development of New START followed a largely realistic, time-bound logic, shaped by strategic necessity at the time. With the end of START I in December 2009, the US and Russia faced an immediate loss of a transparent, verifiable mechanism in the strategic nuclear domain. The absence of such a mechanism increased the risk of misperception and instability. Hence, the necessity of a mutually agreed mechanism was felt. Earlier, the George W. Bush administration was largely disinclined towards formal arms control. But when Barack Obama took office as President in 2009, a push was given for renewed nuclear engagement with Russia. As a result, talks began in mid-2009 and concluded at exceptional speed, leading to the signing of New START in April 2010. The treaty entered into force in early 2011.
The focus of the treaty mechanism was limited, possibly because the negotiation period was too short. New START prioritized the rapid restoration of verification regimes, data exchanges and confidence-building measures that had lapsed with START I. The treaty entered into force on 5 February 2011, for 10 years. Under the treaty, the US and the Russian Federation had seven years to meet the treaty’s central limits on strategic offensive arms (by 5 February 2018). They were then obligated to maintain those limits for as long as the treaty remains in force.
