ARGUMENT: A GIFT TO RUSSIANATO’s Loss Is Russia’s Gain
The Trump-instigated Greenland crisis will inevitably do a long-term damage to NATO’s cohesion, and will make it more difficult for the alliance to achieve its highest priorities of deterring Russian aggression, defending NATO territory, and supporting Ukraine. John Drennan and Ariane Tabatabai write that a result of the unnecessary crisis, “Moscow is making major progress on a long-term foreign policy goal—the weakening of NATO—without having to expend resources or being involved at all.”
We are past the most acute phase of the self-inflicted crisis within NATO over Greenland – and the alliance is still intact. But the effects of the crisis have real – and negative — implications for European security and U.S. interests.
John Drennan and Ariane Tabatabai write in Lawfare that the inevitable long-term damage to the alliance’s cohesion will make it more difficult for NATO to achieve its highest priorities of deterring Russian aggression, defending NATO territory, and supporting Ukraine. Moreover, they note that “Moscow is making major progress on a long-term foreign policy goal—the weakening of NATO—without having to expend resources or being involved at all.”
And the timing could not be better for Russia: NATO’s political cohesion is falling while Russia’s core partnerships—particularly with China, North Korea, and Iran—have been strengthening, providing Russia with significant benefits. “This is especially true in areas such as sanctions evasion and dual-use technology—both of which are critical to its performance on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Drennan and Tabatabai write, adding:
An internal crisis forcing NATO onto its back foot offers significant upsides for Russia at relatively little cost. The resulting short- and long-term effects of the crisis will likely support Russian objectives in Ukraine and vis-a-vis NATO at a time when Russia’s own partnerships are deepening.
Russia has viewed NATO as the central threat to its interests. The Kremlin thus regards weakening NATO as one of Russia’s essential national security goals. And “driving a wedge between the United States and its European allies as critical to undermining the alliance and dulling its efficacy,” Drennan and Tabatabai write.
The Trump-initiated Greenland crisis was openly welcomed by Moscow because it served Russia’s interests.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov questioned whether NATO could continue to exist “as a unified Western military-political bloc.” Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russia Direct Investment Fund and one of the key Kremlin interlocutors in the peace process with Ukraine, lauded the “collapse of the transatlantic union” in response to President Trump’s social media post threatening tariffs on several U.S. allies over their position on his Greenland annexation plans. And the vice chairman of the Russian State Duma’s foreign affairs committee called the “deepening contradictions” between the United States and Europe “very good news for the rest of the world.”
