WORLD ROUNDUPWhat War with Iran Would Look Like | For Washington, All Roads Lead to Minsk | Israel’s War in Gaza & Counterinsurgency Theory, and more

House Is Set to Vote on Canceling Trump’s Canada Tariffs  (Robert Jimison, New York Times)
Republican leaders have blocked challenges to President Trump’s trade war for a year, but dissent in their own ranks will force a vote.

What Is Kari Lake Trying to Achieve?  (Anne Applebaum and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, The Atlantic)
The Arizona politician has wasted millions of dollars while blocking U.S. efforts to bring reliable news to repressive countries.

What War with Iran Would Look Like  (Arash Reisinezhad and Arsham Reisinezhad, The Atlantic)
Decapitation strikes against the regime are likely. An invasion is not.

Why Thai Conservatives Just Won Big  (Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy)
An epochal win may yet mask a deeper desire for reform in the electorate.

The Year of the Fire Horse Finds Xi on Edge  (James Palmer, Foreign Policy)
China’s president looks secure on the world stage, but trouble is brewing on the home front.

China Once Stole Foreign Ideas. Now It Wants to Protect Its Own  (Economist)
The country’s courts are inundated with intellectual-property cases.

Risks to NATO Food Security in the Age of Hybrid Threats  (Erin Sikorsky and Siena Cicarelli, Lawfare)
As NATO focuses on resilience, it must prepare for increasing cyber and biological threats to agriculture and food systems.

For Washington, All Roads Lead to Minsk  (Katsiaryna Shmatsina, Lawfare)
As Washington falls out with some of its closest, most enduring allies, Belarus, long isolated by the West, has gained favor.

Does Guaranteeing Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge Still Serve U.S. Interests?  (Geist Pinfold, War on the Rocks)
In early January 2026, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dropped a bombshell. In an interview for the Economist, he claimed that he sought to “taper off” the $3.8 billion in military aid that Israel receives from the United States or even end this longstanding military assistance program entirely. Yet, Netanyahu claimed in the same interview that Israel is embroiled in a battle to defend all “western civilisation” from “fanatic forces” who wanted to “take us back to the early Middle Ages.” What makes this even more extraordinary is that previous reports suggested that Netanyahu not only sought to renew a military aid deal, but also to double the period it covers. Why, then, does Netanyahu want to cut off Israel’s only guaranteed supply of arms?
The answer is that Netanyahu’s recent interview is as notable for its glaring omissions as for its surprising declarations. Critically, he did not advocate ending America’s longstanding policy of upholding Israel’s qualitative military edge in the Middle East, which commits the United States to ensuring that Israel’s military maintains a decisive technological superiority over any other regional actor, friend or foe. (Cont.)