CLIMATE-CHANGE CHALLENGESStudy Reveals Climatic Fingerprints of Wildfires and Volcanic Eruptions
In research that could help elucidate humans’ role in global warming, scientists showed how three major natural events impacted global atmospheric temperatures.
Volcanoes and wildfires can inject millions of tons of gases and aerosol particles into the air, affecting temperatures on a global scale. But picking out the specific impact of individual events against a background of many contributing factors is like listening for one person’s voice from across a crowded concourse.
MIT scientists now have a way to quiet the noise and identify the specific signal of wildfires and volcanic eruptions, including their effects on Earth’s global atmospheric temperatures.
In a study appearing this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers report that they detected statistically significant changes in global atmospheric temperatures in response to three major natural events: the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the Australian wildfires in 2019-2020, and the eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga in the South Pacific in 2022.
While the specifics of each event differed, all three events appeared to significantly affect temperatures in the stratosphere. The stratosphere lies above the troposphere, which is the lowest layer of the atmosphere, closest to the surface, where global warming has accelerated in recent years. In the new study, Pinatubo showed the classic pattern of stratospheric warming paired with tropospheric cooling. The Australian wildfires and the Hunga Tonga eruption also showed significant warming or cooling in the stratosphere, respectively, but they did not produce a robust, globally detectable tropospheric signal over the first two years following each event. This new understanding will help scientists further pin down the effect of human-related emissions on global temperature change.
“Understanding the climate responses to natural forcings is essential for us to interpret anthropogenic climate change,” says study author Yaowei Li, a former postdoc and currently a visiting scientist in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS). “Unlike the global tropospheric and surface cooling caused by Pinatubo, our results also indicate that the Australian wildfires and Hunga Tonga eruption may not have played a role in the acceleration of global surface warming in recent years. So, there must be some other factors.”
The study’s co-authors include Susan Solomon, the Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Studies and Chemistry at MIT, along with Benjamin Santer of the University of East Anglia, David Thompson of the University of East Anglia and Colorado State University, and Qiang Fu of the University of Washington.
