WORLD ROUNDUPThe Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored | The Kill Ratio That Can Sink Putin’s War | Elbridge Colby and the Reordering of the Indo-Pacific, and more
• The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored
• Trump’s Top General Warns Against War with Iran
• France’s Far Left Reckons with the Murder of a Far-Right Activist
• The Kill Ratio That Can Sink Putin’s War
• Greens Leader Says Zionism Is a Form of Racism
• Elbridge Colby and the Reordering of the Indo-Pacific
• Marco Rubio’s Munich Speech Is More Dangerous Than You Think
• Why Korea’s Nuclear-Powered Submarine Matters to U.S. Strategy
• The Danger in the Middle: Will Xi’s Purges Increase the Risk of War?
• Life in Cuba Under Trump’s Pressure Campaign: No Electricity, No Oil, and Impossible Choices
The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored (Tripp Mickle, New York Times)
If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.
Trump’s Top General Warns Against War with Iran (Lilia Sebouai and Henry Bodkin, The Telegraph)
Gen Dan Caine has advised caution on possible attack amid fears of retaliatory strikes.
France’s Far Left Reckons with the Murder of a Far-Right Activist (Economist)
Quentin Deranque’s death forces the left to confront its extremists.
The Kill Ratio That Can Sink Putin’s War (Memphis Barker, The Telegraph)
Four years on, Moscow’s loss of 40,000 soldiers a month may yet force the Kremlin to settle for less.
Greens Leader Says Zionism Is a Form of Racism (Dominic Penna, The Telegraph)
Zack Polanski signals support for party motion that also suggests Israel should not exist.
Elbridge Colby and the Reordering of the Indo-Pacific (Alejandro Reyes, Foreign Policy)
The influential Pentagon official is narrowing choices available to U.S. allies.
Marco Rubio’s Munich Speech Is More Dangerous Than You Think (Howard W. French,Foreign Policy)
What the U.S. secretary of state laid bare about the Trump worldview.
Why Korea’s Nuclear-Powered Submarine Matters to U.S. Strategy (Brian Persons, Miyeon Oh, and Daniel Justice, RAND)
South Korea, one of the world’s most advanced shipbuilding nations, doesn’t yet operate a nuclear-powered submarine. That could be about to change.
What matters now is how Seoul and Washington go about turning words into warships. This is not just a Korean capability upgrade. In an era of intensifying undersea competition and growing demands on U.S. forces, this is a strategic opportunity for the alliance, as well as for security in the Indo-Pacific.
The Danger in the Middle: Will Xi’s Purges Increase the Risk of War? (Joel Wuthnow, War on the Rocks)
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has purged dozens of senior People’s Liberation Army officers since mid-2023, including two in January, but will this increase the risk of war? The loss of experienced officers could make Xi less confident in how his military would perform, but his increased power could also provide him greater latitude to order troops into combat to achieve what might be a key legacy for him — the long-elusive unification of China with Taiwan.
As political scientists recognize, competent leadership is a key ingredient of battlefield effectiveness. Recent purges have removed some of the highest-ranking and most experienced Chinese officers of their generation and underlined Xi’s lack of trust in his own inner circle. Zhang Youxia, who served as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, which is the highest military decision-making and advisory body in China, was perhaps his closest advisor. Empty chairs at the decision-making table, and in key operational posts throughout the military, will weigh on any leader contemplating a war.
The disruption, however, will likely be temporary. The greatest prospects for war will be in the medium term of the late 2020s to early 2030s when new commanders are firmly in place. Those officers will have stronger credentials but less power than their predecessors to push back if Xi embraces war optimism. Xi will also be aware that the long-term time horizon will be bleaker. Not only will he be gone, but his successor will have trouble managing a force that could revert to its old habits of corruption and obfuscation. The key for deterrence in these middle years will be to convince Xi himself, moreso than his military advisors, that the risks of aggression remain unacceptable.
Life in Cuba Under Trump’s Pressure Campaign: No Electricity, No Oil, and Impossible Choices (Abraham Jiménez Enoa, Wired)
As the United States takes new steps against the regime that has ruled the island since 1959, the Cuban people face 20-hour blackouts, decreased internet access, and shortages of basic supplies.
